28 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart DFB Pokal prediction & result

Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn
Referee: Florian Badstubner
Full time0 – 1

Final score: SC Paderborn 07 0-1 VfB Stuttgart.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% SC Paderborn 07, 31% draw, 38% VfB Stuttgart — fair odds of 3.23, 3.23 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

VfB Stuttgart at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SC Paderborn 072%Draw94%VfB Stuttgart4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

33'
Jamie Leweling
Laurin Curda
37'
41'
Jeffrey Julian Gaston Chabot
45'
🔁Angelo Stillerout: Atakan Karazor
🔁Deniz Zeitlerout: Stefano Marino
58'
62'
🔁Lorenz Assignonout: Chris Führich
62'
🔁Jeffrey Julian Gaston Chabotout: Luca Jaquez
🔁Marvin Pieringerout: Steffen Tigges
68'
🔁Ruben Müllerout: Raphael Obermair
68'
🔁Jonah Stickerout: Tjark Scheller
75'
🔁Jano ter Horstout: Mattes Hansen
75'
Raphael Obermair
85'
90'
⚽Deniz Undavassist: Chris Führich
90+2'
🔁Deniz Undavout: Dženan Pejčinović

Match stats — SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart

36%Possession64%
17Shots19
5On target5
4Corners6
0.92xG3.22

Goals against chances

SC Paderborn 070 from 0.92 xGless than the chances were worth
VfB Stuttgart1 from 3.22 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

SC Paderborn 07 3-4-2-1
  • 1M. SchubertG
  • 21J. ter HorstD
  • 20F. GötzeD
  • 3Jonah Benedict StickerD
  • 2Ruben MüllerM
  • 5S. CastañedaM
  • 6T. BaackM
  • 29C. LippmannM
  • 17L. CurdaM
  • 38D. ZeitlerM
  • 18M. PieringerF
Substitutes
  • 8L. ĐurićM
  • 22M. HansenD
  • 30S. MarinoF
  • 15N. NollG
  • 23R. ObermairM
  • 9R. PhilippeF
  • 25T. SchellerD
  • 27S. TiggesF
  • 28L. UlrichM
Coach: R. Kettemann
VfB Stuttgart 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. BredlowG
  • 22L. AssignonD
  • 3R. HendriksD
  • 24J. ChabotD
  • 7M. MittelstädtD
  • 21G. PrömelM
  • 6A. StillerM
  • 11B. El KhannoussM
  • 26D. UndavM
  • 18J. LewelingM
  • 9E. DemirovićF
Substitutes
  • 47Y. SpaltD
  • 41D. SeimenG
  • 17D. PejčinovićF
  • 28N. NarteyM
  • 16A. KarazorM
  • 29Finn JeltschD
  • 14L. JaquezD
  • 10C. FührichM
  • 2A. Al DakhilD
Coach: S. Hoeneb

Form going into SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart

SC Paderborn 07

Bundesliga

  • W1-0Hamburger SV24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Werder Bremen17 October 2026
  • L0-2VfB Stuttgart10 October 2026

VfB Stuttgart

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3Borussia Mönchengladbach23 October 2026
  • D1-1Atletico Madrid20 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Hamburger SV17 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Slovan Bratislava14 October 2026
  • W2-0away to SC Paderborn 0710 October 2026

What these results say

  • VfB Stuttgart scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart

  • 10 October 2026SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
  • 31 January 2023SC Paderborn 07 1–2 VfB StuttgartDFB Pokal
  • 23 May 2015SC Paderborn 07 1–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
  • 20 December 2014VfB Stuttgart 0–0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga

The full SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart record →

The result against the call

VfB Stuttgart won 1–0 at SC Paderborn 07. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for VfB Stuttgart at 38%. The goal: Deniz Undav 90' for VfB Stuttgart. Sent off: Laurin Curda (SC Paderborn 07) 37'. On expected goals it finished 0.92–3.22.

How the call on SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart has moved

First published on 13 Oct at 26% / 31% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 31% / 31% / 38%: the biggest move is SC Paderborn 07's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. SC Paderborn 07 win31%▲ +5
  2. Draw31%=
  3. VfB Stuttgart win38%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.