Dynamo Dresden vs FC Schalke 04 DFB Pokal prediction & result
Final score: Dynamo Dresden 2-0 FC Schalke 04.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Dynamo Dresden, 33% draw, 38% FC Schalke 04 — fair odds of 3.45, 3.03 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
FC Schalke 04 at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dynamo Dresden vs FC Schalke 04
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22L. GrillG
- 32J. SternerD
- 6N. RappD
- 42F. MullerD
- 44S. StraudiD
- 18R. WagnerM
- 21T. RaschlM
- 24P. ČovićM
- 27N. HauptmannM
- 20B. BobzienM
- 9V. VermeijF
- 33C. DafernerF
- 16N. FrölingF
- 8L. HerrmannM
- 11K. InanogluF
- 10J. LemmerM
- 17A. MuhamedbegovićD
- 34T. NeiningerD
- 19A. RossipalD
- 1T. SchreiberG
- 1L. KariusG
- 29J. Dina EbimbeD
- 43M. AyhanD
- 25N. KatićD
- 4H. KuruçayD
- 33Vitalie BeckerD
- 38L. VozarM
- 13S. TanakaM
- 24A. AouchicheM
- 7Hwang Hee-ChanF
- 10E. DžekoF
- 40E. GashiM
- 19K. KaramanF
- 11B. LasmeF
- 21D. LjubičićM
- 22K. MüllerG
- 35J. NdiayeF
- 27F. PorathM
- 5T. BeckerD
- 20J. AdamuF
Form going into Dynamo Dresden vs FC Schalke 04
Dynamo Dresden
2. Bundesliga
- L0-3away to Holstein Kiel25 October 2026
- W2-01. FC Magdeburg18 October 2026
- D1-1away to VfL Osnabrück10 October 2026
FC Schalke 04
Bundesliga
- D0-0away to 1. FC Köln24 October 2026
- L0-1FSV Mainz 0517 October 2026
- L1-2away to SC Freiburg11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Dynamo Dresden and FC Schalke 04 in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 2. Bundesliga | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 6 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: 2. Bundesliga · Bundesliga
Head-to-head: Dynamo Dresden vs FC Schalke 04
- 7 February 2026FC Schalke 04 2–2 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 31 August 2025Dynamo Dresden 0–1 FC Schalke 042. Bundesliga
- 1 April 2022Dynamo Dresden 1–2 FC Schalke 042. Bundesliga
- 23 October 2021FC Schalke 04 3–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 18 August 2014Dynamo Dresden 2–1 FC Schalke 04DFB Pokal
The result against the call
Dynamo Dresden beat FC Schalke 04 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Schalke 04 at 38% and given a win for Dynamo Dresden 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Patrice Čović 53' for Dynamo Dresden, Christoph Daferner 88' for Dynamo Dresden. On expected goals it finished 0.78–0.74.
How the call on Dynamo Dresden v FC Schalke 04 has moved
First published on 13 Oct at 27% / 30% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 29% / 33% / 38%: the biggest move is FC Schalke 04's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Dynamo Dresden win29%▲ +2
- Draw33%▲ +3
- FC Schalke 04 win38%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.