Liverpool vs Chelsea League Cup prediction & result
Final score: Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Liverpool, 22% draw, 20% Chelsea — fair odds of 1.72, 4.55 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Liverpool at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Liverpool vs Chelsea
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25G. MamardashviliG
- 2J. GomezD
- 33R. AraújoD
- 4V. van DijkD
- 21K. TsimikasD
- 38R. GravenberchM
- 42T. NyoniM
- 67L. KoumasM
- 53J. McConnellM
- 73R. NgumohaM
- 18C. GakpoF
- 9A. IsakF
- 5J. JacquetD
- 10A. Mac AllisterM
- 1Alisson BeckerG
- 29B. BarcolaF
- 44L. ChambersD
- 14F. ChiesaF
- 3W. EndoM
- 7F. WirtzM
- 39M. PendersG
- 34Joshua Kofi AcheampongD
- 5M. LacroixD
- 3W. FofanaD
- 27M. GustoD
- 25M. CaicedoM
- 45R. LaviaM
- 7Pedro NetoM
- 14J. HendersonM
- 17M. RogersM
- 18D. WelbeckF
- 22E. EmeghaF
- 41EstêvãoF
- 32M. Nicoll-JazuliM
- 2M. PalestraD
- 23Geovany Tcherno QuendaM
- 28T. Sharman-LoweG
- 37O. SubuloyeD
- 4V. BarcoM
- 6L. ColwillD
Form going into Liverpool vs Chelsea
Liverpool
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Brighton25 October 2026
- W4-3Villarreal20 October 2026
- W2-1away to Brentford17 October 2026
- W6-3away to Lask Linz14 October 2026
- L0-3Manchester City11 October 2026
Chelsea
Premier League
- L0-2Tottenham24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Everton17 October 2026
- W5-1Bournemouth10 October 2026
What these results say
- Liverpool won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Liverpool scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Liverpool conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Chelsea vs Liverpool
Chelsea and Liverpool have met 7 times in the records we hold, Liverpool has won 3 of them to Chelsea's 2, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Liverpool on 28 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 |
| Liverpool | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 28 Oct 2026
League CupLiverpool 1–1 Chelsea - 9 May 2026
Premier LeagueLiverpool 1–1 Chelsea - 4 Oct 2025
Premier LeagueChelsea 2–1 Liverpool - 4 May 2025
Premier LeagueChelsea 3–1 Liverpool - 20 Oct 2024
Premier LeagueLiverpool 2–1 Chelsea - 25 Feb 2024
League CupChelsea 0–1 Liverpool - 31 Jan 2024
Premier LeagueLiverpool 4–1 Chelsea
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Liverpool's attack rates 9% above Chelsea's, and Liverpool concede 25% fewer than Chelsea. That gives Liverpool the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Liverpool and Chelsea
Liverpool
No leading scorers listed yet.
Chelsea
GoalsAssists
- João Pedro53
- M. Rogers51
- Pedro Neto31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Liverpool and Chelsea drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Liverpool at 58% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 2.19–1.88.
How the call on Liverpool v Chelsea has moved
First published on 14 Oct at 53% / 23% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 58% / 22% / 20%: the biggest move is Liverpool's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Liverpool win58%▲ +5
- Draw22%▼ −1
- Chelsea win20%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Liverpool's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Chelsea's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.