Club America vs Club Tijuana Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Club America 1-1 Club Tijuana.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Club America, 23% draw, 24% Club Tijuana — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Club America at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club America vs Club Tijuana
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30R. CotaG
- 34D. EspinozaD
- 29R. JuárezD
- 32M. VázquezD
- 26C. BorjaD
- 6E. CerrilloM
- 13A. CervantesM
- 12I. ViolanteM
- 20A. GutiérrezM
- 206Derek JimenezM
- 93M. BorjaF
- 2E. LaraD
- 9H. MartínF
- 22Ó. PereaF
- 3I. ReyesD
- 7B. RodríguezF
- 28É. SánchezM
- 21F. TapiaG
- 217IcaroM
- 5K. ÁlvarezD
- 2A. RodríguezG
- 3R. FernándezD
- 12J. PorozoD
- 4Unai BilbaoD
- 6A. GómezD
- 33P. OrtízD
- 31Y. PadillaM
- 34F. BoyaM
- 20Á. ZapataM
- 202J. GonzálezM
- 13Elias ManoelF
- 17R. ÁrcigaF
- 16J. VegaD
- 15I. RiveroM
- 7Adonis PreciadoF
- 10G. MoraM
- 18A. MejíaD
- 29S. HernándezG
- 11F. GonzálezF
- 9MouradF
Form going into Club America vs Club Tijuana
Club America
Liga MX
- L1-2CF Pachuca26 October 2026
- W5-2away to Atlas22 October 2026
Club Tijuana
Liga MX
- W4-1Santos Laguna26 October 2026
- D2-2away to Toluca22 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 30 |
| 10 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club America vs Club Tijuana
Club America and Club Tijuana have met 7 times in the records we hold, Club America has won 2 of them to Club Tijuana's 0, with 5 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Club America on 29 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club America | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 7 |
| Club Tijuana | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 29 Oct 2026
Liga MXClub America 1–1 Club Tijuana - 10 Jan 2026
Liga MXClub Tijuana 0–0 Club America - 17 Jul 2025
Liga MXClub America 3–1 Club Tijuana - 17 Jan 2025
Liga MXClub America 1–1 Club Tijuana - 22 Nov 2024
Liga MXClub Tijuana 2–2 Club America - 24 Oct 2024
Liga MXClub Tijuana 2–2 Club America - 14 Jan 2024
Liga MXClub Tijuana 0–2 Club America
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Club America's attack rates 34% above Club Tijuana's, and Club Tijuana concede 9% fewer than Club America. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Club America | 1.03 | 1.30 |
| Club Tijuana | 0.77 | 1.18 |
Leading scorers: Club America and Club Tijuana
Club America
GoalsAssists
- H. Martín113
- M. Borja60
- B. Rodríguez53
Club Tijuana
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Club America and Club Tijuana drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Club America at 53% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Elias Manoel 12' for Club Tijuana, Miguel Borja 19' for Club America. Sent off: Jesus Gomez (Club Tijuana) 90+3'. On expected goals it finished 1.62–0.47.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Club America a 62.2% chance to finish top of the Apertura: 75.5% after a win, 49.2% after a draw, 38.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 49.2%, 13 points lower than before the match.
For Club Tijuana the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 68.1% going in: 88.9% after a win, 72.0% after a draw, 59.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 72.0%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Club America v Club Tijuana has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 53% / 23% / 24%: the biggest move is Club America's chance of winning, up 16 points.
- Club America win53%▲ +16
- Draw23%▼ −5
- Club Tijuana win24%▼ −11
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.