Atletico San Luis vs Atlas Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atletico San Luis 0-1 Atlas.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Atletico San Luis, 25% draw, 29% Atlas — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico San Luis at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico San Luis vs Atlas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25G. LajudG
- 3Robson BambuD
- 31E. ÁguilaD
- 18A. CruzD
- 7B. GaldamesM
- 21Ó. MacíasM
- 10S. Salles-LamongeM
- 17A. DuarteM
- 11D. RodríguezM
- 22Rafa LlorenteM
- 99F. MoraF
- 2R. TorresD
- 20L. FloresF
- 16Lucas EstevesD
- 13J. CaicedoM
- 30B. GalindoD
- 5R. MerazM
- 8L. NájeraM
- 26S. Pérez BouquetM
- 6JuanpeD
- 12C. VargasG
- 19A. FríasD
- 28M. CapassoD
- 44J. PurataD
- 23S. HernándezD
- 6É. ZaldívarM
- 15Paulo RamírezM
- 3J. SánchezM
- 203J. MartínM
- 10Luís EstevesM
- 9F. MonzónF
- 22A. SánchezG
- 5J. RodríguezD
- 26A. RochaM
- 4A. MoraD
- 8R. MmaeeF
- 17J. LozanoD
- 27V. RÃosM
- 58A. GonzálezF
- 13G. AguirreD
Form going into Atletico San Luis vs Atlas
Atletico San Luis
Liga MX
- W1-0away to Atlante FC24 October 2026
- W2-1Club Queretaro21 October 2026
- D1-1away to Toluca18 October 2026
Atlas
Liga MX
- W4-3Puebla25 October 2026
- L2-5Club America22 October 2026
- W2-0away to Necaxa17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 19 |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlas vs Atletico San Luis
Atlas and Atletico San Luis have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each, with 1 drawn.
The record
Atlas won the last one 1–0 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Atletico San Luis | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
Liga MXAtletico San Luis 0–1 Atlas - 1 Jul 2026
Friendlies ClubsAtlas 0–1 Atletico San Luis - 21 Feb 2026
Liga MXAtlas 3–2 Atletico San Luis - 18 Oct 2025
Liga MXAtletico San Luis 2–0 Atlas - 3 Mar 2025
Liga MXAtlas 3–1 Atletico San Luis - 3 Jan 2025
Friendlies ClubsAtlas 1–1 Atletico San Luis - 31 Aug 2024
Liga MXAtletico San Luis 2–1 Atlas
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Atlas' attack rates 18% above Atletico San Luis', and Atletico San Luis concede 11% fewer than Atlas. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 0.77 | 1.48 |
| Atletico San Luis | 0.65 | 1.31 |
Leading scorers: Atletico San Luis and Atlas
Atletico San Luis
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Atlas
GoalsAssists
- F. Monzón51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atlas won 1–0 at Atletico San Luis. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico San Luis at 46% and given a win for Atlas 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Florián Monzón 63' for Atlas. On expected goals it finished 1.05–0.78.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico San Luis a 42.0% chance to finish in the top eight: 65.3% after a win, 27.6% after a draw, 14.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.8%, 27.2 points lower than before the match.
For Atlas the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 89.9% going in: 100.0% after a win, 94.8% after a draw, 82.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 100.0%, 10.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Atletico San Luis v Atlas has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 41% / 26% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 46% / 25% / 29%: the biggest move is Atletico San Luis's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Atletico San Luis win46%▲ +5
- Draw25%▼ −1
- Atlas win29%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.