31 October 2026, 03:00 UTC

Puebla vs Pumas UNAM Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla
Referee: Oscar Mejia Garcia
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Puebla 1-2 Pumas UNAM.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Puebla, 28% draw, 39% Pumas UNAM — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Pumas UNAM at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Puebla4%Draw92%Pumas UNAM4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
⚽Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júniorassist: Rodrigo López
⚽Omar Morenoassist: L. Hernández
23'
🔁Brayan Garnicaout: Kevin Velasco
55'
🔁L. Hernándezout: Ignacio Maestro
55'
59'
•Adalberto Carrasquilla
61'
Adalberto Carrasquilla
72'
🔁Cesar Huertaout: Victor Arteaga
73'
Pedro Vite
🔁Omar Morenoout: Carlos Baltazar
76'
🔁José Pachucaout: Ángel Leyva
82'
84'
🔁Carlos Antunaout: Alan Medina
85'
🔁Rubén Duarteout: Álvaro Angulo
88'
🔁Pedro Viteout: Luciano Herrera
90'
⚽Álvaro Angulo

Match stats — Puebla vs Pumas UNAM

53%Possession47%
17Shots13
6On target5
7Corners3
1.34xG2.91

Goals against chances

Puebla1 from 1.34 xGabout what the chances were worth
Pumas UNAM2 from 2.91 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Puebla 4-2-3-1
  • 28R. GutiérrezG
  • 12I. MorenoD
  • 5F. AlmadaD
  • 4J. VargasD
  • 7F. MonárrezD
  • 24A. OrganistaM
  • 14E. ArmentaM
  • 27B. GarnicaM
  • 20J. PachucaM
  • 8O. MorenoM
  • 9L. HernándezF
Substitutes
  • 2Á. LeyvaD
  • 3A. HerreraM
  • 22C. BaltazarM
  • 34Lucas CamiloM
  • 19I. Maestro PuchF
  • 29E. MustreF
  • 33J. RodríguezG
  • 10M. TomásM
  • 26K. VelascoF
Coach: Gerardo Espinoza
Pumas UNAM 4-4-2
  • 1K. NavasG
  • 7R. LópezD
  • 6Nathan SilvaD
  • 5Rubén DuarteD
  • 2P. BennevendoD
  • 21U. AntunaM
  • 8A. CarrasquillaM
  • 45P. ViteM
  • 10C. HuertaM
  • 31R. MoralesF
  • 23JuninhoF
Substitutes
  • 77Á. AnguloD
  • 18V. ArteagaM
  • 34Á. AzuajeD
  • 14L. HerreraF
  • 35P. LaraG
  • 24T. LeoneD
  • 15I. LunaM
  • 30Santiago López LópezF
  • 22A. MedinaF
Coach: E. Solari

Form going into Puebla vs Pumas UNAM

Puebla

Liga MX

  • L3-4away to Atlas25 October 2026
  • L1-4Monterrey22 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Club Tijuana17 October 2026

Pumas UNAM

Liga MX

  • D1-1Tigres UANL25 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Santos Laguna22 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Atlante FC17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Puebla165471923-419
11Pumas UNAM165652426-221

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Puebla vs Pumas UNAM

Puebla and Pumas UNAM have met 7 times in the records we hold, Pumas UNAM has won 6 of them to Puebla's 0, with 1 drawn.

The record

Pumas UNAM won the last one 2–1 on 31 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Puebla016414
Pumas UNAM610144

Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 31 Oct 2026
    Liga MX    Puebla 1–2 Pumas UNAM
  • 14 Feb 2026
    Liga MX    Puebla 2–3 Pumas UNAM
  • 24 Aug 2025
    Liga MX    Pumas UNAM 0–0 Puebla
  • 8 Mar 2025
    Liga MX    Puebla 1–3 Pumas UNAM
  • 18 Sep 2024
    Liga MX    Pumas UNAM 1–0 Puebla
  • 11 Feb 2024
    Liga MX    Pumas UNAM 3–0 Puebla
  • 23 Sep 2023
    Liga MX    Puebla 0–2 Pumas UNAM

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Pumas UNAM's attack rates 34% above Puebla's, and Pumas UNAM concede 7% fewer than Puebla. That gives Pumas UNAM the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Puebla0.611.38
Pumas UNAM0.821.29

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Puebla and Pumas UNAM

Puebla

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Pumas UNAM

GoalsAssists

  • Juninho91
  • R. Morales54

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Pumas UNAM won 2–1 at Puebla. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Pumas UNAM at 39%. The goals: Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnior 10' for Pumas UNAM, Omar Moreno 23' for Puebla, Álvaro Angulo 90' for Pumas UNAM. On expected goals it finished 1.34–2.91.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Puebla a 14.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 1.2% after a win, 12.9% after a draw, 25.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.4%, 10.9 points higher than before the match.

For Pumas UNAM the question was the chance to finish in the top eight: 26.1% after a win, 7.0% after a draw, 1.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 26.1%.

Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.