FC Juarez vs Club Queretaro Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: FC Juarez 3-1 Club Queretaro.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% FC Juarez, 28% draw, 41% Club Queretaro — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Club Queretaro at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Juarez vs Club Queretaro
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. JuradoG
- 33F. NevárezD
- 2G. SepúlvedaD
- 26D. PiñaD
- 14E. LópezD
- 5D. GarcíaM
- 13Rodrigo DouradoM
- 9MadsonM
- 8Guilherme CastilhoM
- 183L. SilvaM
- 19Ó. EstupiñánF
- 17L. Martínez DupuyF
- 198Ricardo Juárez MendozaD
- 3J. MurilloD
- 21RicardinhoM
- 23H. OrtegaD
- 11J. RodríguezM
- 6MonchuM
- 27Guillermo RuizG
- 10J. TorresF
- 25G. AllisonG
- 16E. GiménezD
- 13D. ReyesD
- 2L. AbasciaD
- 27D. ParraD
- 4Carlo AdrianoM
- 8B. ParraM
- 17D. MuñozM
- 11M. CoronelM
- 7Iker BenitoM
- 9A. ÁvilaF
- 12Paulo VictorD
- 24B. DuarteD
- 30J. MartinezM
- 28J. ArellanoM
- 20Álex AlcaláM
- 1J. HernándezG
- 29W. MadridM
- 26E. PérezF
- 23J. RoblesM
Form going into FC Juarez vs Club Queretaro
FC Juarez
Liga MX
- D1-1away to Necaxa24 October 2026
- L0-1Atlante FC21 October 2026
- L0-5away to Cruz Azul18 October 2026
Club Queretaro
Liga MX
- L1-3Cruz Azul26 October 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico San Luis21 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 34 | -21 | 11 |
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Queretaro vs FC Juarez
Club Queretaro and FC Juarez have met 7 times in the records we hold, Club Queretaro has won 4 of them to FC Juarez's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
FC Juarez won the last one 3–1 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Queretaro | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 7 |
| FC Juarez | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
Liga MXFC Juarez 3–1 Club Queretaro - 8 Apr 2026
Liga MXClub Queretaro 1–1 FC Juarez - 8 Nov 2025
Liga MXFC Juarez 1–2 Club Queretaro - 21 Apr 2025
Liga MXFC Juarez 0–2 Club Queretaro - 2 Nov 2024
Liga MXClub Queretaro 1–2 FC Juarez - 16 Mar 2024
Liga MXClub Queretaro 1–0 FC Juarez - 6 Nov 2023
Liga MXFC Juarez 0–3 Club Queretaro
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, FC Juarez's attack rates 5% above Club Queretaro's, and Club Queretaro concede 19% fewer than FC Juarez. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Club Queretaro | 0.58 | 1.32 |
| FC Juarez | 0.61 | 1.63 |
Leading scorers: FC Juarez and Club Queretaro
FC Juarez
GoalsAssists
- Ó. Estupiñán80
Club Queretaro
GoalsAssists
- A. Ávila60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Juarez beat Club Queretaro 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Club Queretaro at 41% and given a win for FC Juarez 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Oscar Estupiñan 17' for FC Juarez, Madson de Souza Silva 39' for FC Juarez, José Luis Rodríguez 83' for FC Juarez, Ali Ávila 89' for Club Queretaro. On expected goals it finished 1.46–2.71.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Club Queretaro a 77.8% chance to finish in the top eight: 91.7% after a win, 73.9% after a draw, 64.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 64.0%, 13.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on FC Juarez v Club Queretaro has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 27% / 27% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 31% / 28% / 41%: the biggest move is Club Queretaro's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- FC Juarez win31%▲ +4
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Club Queretaro win41%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.