CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: CF Pachuca 3-0 Tigres UANL.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% CF Pachuca, 28% draw, 27% Tigres UANL — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
CF Pachuca at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25C. MorenoG
- 13J. BerlangaD
- 4Eduardo BauermannD
- 2S. BarretoD
- 15F. VenegasD
- 16C. RiveraM
- 26Alán Ernesto Bautista GutiérrezM
- 21N. VallejoM
- 7R. PizarroM
- 11O. IdrissiM
- 23S. RondónF
- 207Ian Josué Zavala OsorioF
- 31J. EulogioG
- 206Thomas ContrerasM
- 32P. BudibD
- 9A. AlcárazF
- 211C. HernandezF
- 6M. IsaísD
- 221Ulises Natanael Martínez ReynosoD
- 29KenedyM
- 1N. GuzmánG
- 14J. GarzaD
- 15A. FrancoD
- 33R. GuerreroD
- 19M. LaínezD
- 8F. GorriaránM
- 9E. GómezM
- 16D. LainezM
- 11J. BrunettaM
- 30D. SánchezM
- 22G. MartínezF
- 17R. AguirreF
- 5C. AraújoM
- 29J. ContrerasF
- 77O. HerreraF
- 32V. LoroñaD
- 21R. MonrealF
- 25F. RodríguezG
- 34SimeoneM
- 6J. VigónM
Form going into CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL
CF Pachuca
Liga MX
- W2-1away to Club America26 October 2026
- L1-2Cruz Azul22 October 2026
- L1-2away to Monterrey19 October 2026
Tigres UANL
Liga MX
- D1-1away to Pumas UNAM25 October 2026
- L0-2Leon21 October 2026
- D1-1away to Guadalajara Chivas17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 22 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL
CF Pachuca and Tigres UANL have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each, with 1 drawn.
The record
CF Pachuca won the last one 3–0 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 6 |
| Tigres UANL | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
Liga MXCF Pachuca 3–0 Tigres UANL - 21 Feb 2026
Liga MXTigres UANL 1–2 CF Pachuca - 23 Oct 2025
Liga MXCF Pachuca 1–2 Tigres UANL - 16 Apr 2025
Liga MXCF Pachuca 0–0 Tigres UANL - 27 Oct 2024
Liga MXTigres UANL 2–1 CF Pachuca - 9 Aug 2024
Leagues CupTigres UANL 1–0 CF Pachuca - 7 Apr 2024
Liga MXTigres UANL 0–3 CF Pachuca
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, CF Pachuca's attack rates 23% above Tigres UANL's, and CF Pachuca concede 11% fewer than Tigres UANL. That gives CF Pachuca the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| CF Pachuca | 0.85 | 1.08 |
| Tigres UANL | 0.69 | 1.22 |
Leading scorers: CF Pachuca and Tigres UANL
CF Pachuca
GoalsAssists
- S. Rondón162
Tigres UANL
GoalsAssists
- J. Brunetta94
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
CF Pachuca beat Tigres UANL 3–0. The model had made a win for CF Pachuca its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Salomón Rondón 42' for CF Pachuca, Salomón Rondón 53' for CF Pachuca, Robert Nunes 69' for CF Pachuca. Sent off: Alan Franco (Tigres UANL) 80'. On expected goals it finished 2.74–0.45.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave CF Pachuca a 7.2% chance to finish in the top eight: 13.4% after a win, 1.2% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.4%, 6.2 points higher than before the match.
For Tigres UANL the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 18.5% going in: 1.8% after a win, 14.9% after a draw, 28.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.1%, 9.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.