Çorum FK
vs
Kocaelispor
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Çorum FK 1–0 Kocaelispor
The model makes it 40% Çorum FK, 29% draw, 31% Kocaelispor — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Çorum FK 1.40, Kocaelispor 1.16.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Çorum FK's rating is built from 11 Süper Lig matches and Kocaelispor's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 747 matches.
Key facts
- Çorum FK are 9th on 16 points from 11 games; Kocaelispor are 7th on 19 points from 11 games — Süper Lig.
- Çorum FK have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat at home to Fenerbahçe.
- Kocaelispor are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Eyüpspor.
- Last 6 meetings: Kocaelispor 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 February 2025, ended Kocaelispor 2–0 Çorum FK.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Çorum FK vs Kocaelispor
Has the model earned this number?
Çorum FK at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Çorum FK vs Kocaelispor
Çorum FK
Süper Lig
- L0-5Fenerbahçe8 November 2026
- W3-1away to Erzurumspor FK31 October 2026
- L0-2away to Göztepe25 October 2026
- W2-1Rizespor16 October 2026
- W3-0away to Gaziantep FK11 October 2026
Kocaelispor
Süper Lig
- W2-0away to Eyüpspor7 November 2026
- D0-0Rizespor31 October 2026
- W2-1away to Alanyaspor23 October 2026
- L1-2Göztepe18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Beşiktaş11 October 2026
What these results say
- Çorum FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Çorum FK had three goals or more.
- Kocaelispor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Çorum FK | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Çorum FK vs Kocaelispor
Çorum FK and Kocaelispor have met 6 times in the records we hold, Kocaelispor has won 4 of them to Çorum FK's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Kocaelispor won the last one 2–0 on 15 Feb 2025.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Çorum FK | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| Kocaelispor | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 2.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 15 Feb 2025
1. LigKocaelispor 2–0 Çorum FK - 22 Sep 2024
1. LigÇorum FK 0–2 Kocaelispor - 16 May 2024
1. LigÇorum FK 2–1 Kocaelispor - 7 Apr 2024
1. LigÇorum FK 1–1 Kocaelispor - 12 Nov 2023
1. LigKocaelispor 2–1 Çorum FK - 7 Feb 2021
2. LigÇorum FK 0–1 Kocaelispor
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Çorum FK's attack rates 60% above Kocaelispor's, and Kocaelispor concede 40% fewer than Çorum FK. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Çorum FK | 0.96 | 1.46 |
| Kocaelispor | 0.60 | 0.88 |
Leading scorers: Çorum FK and Kocaelispor
Çorum FK
GoalsAssists
- C. Ramírez61
- A. Kyziridis44
- C. Ünder42
Kocaelispor
GoalsAssists
- B. Kutlu51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Kocaelispor (seventh, with Çorum FK ninth), while our numbers lean to Çorum FK. Çorum FK rate 0.96 in attack and 1.46 in defence, Kocaelispor 0.60 and 0.88 (lower is better in defence), so Çorum FK have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Çorum FK a 0% chance of the title and Kocaelispor 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Çorum FK the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Çorum FK against 1.16 for Kocaelispor. Çorum FK's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/0.88 for Kocaelispor.
How the model reaches 40% for Çorum FK to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Çorum FK to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Çorum FK's ratings add 2 points and Kocaelispor's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level41%−2
- Çorum FK's ratings43%+2
- Kocaelispor's ratings40%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Çorum FK at home · Kocaelispor away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Çorum FKKocaelispor
Çorum FK are 9th after 11 Süper Lig matches (between 1st and 16th so far); Kocaelispor are 7th after 11 (between 2nd and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Çorum FK 11, Kocaelispor 11.
Çorum FK score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Kocaelispor have let in 1 there.
Kocaelispor score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Çorum FK have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Çorum FK
- at Trabzonspor6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 16%
- vs Amed11 Dec · Süper Ligwin 31%
- at Gençlerbirliği S.K.20 Dec · Süper Ligwin 36%
- vs Konyaspor17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 49%
Kocaelispor
- at Erzurumspor FK6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 36%
- vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.13 Dec · Süper Ligwin 44%
- at Trabzonspor21 Dec · Süper Ligwin 18%
- vs Kasımpaşa17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 36%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.