Ceara vs Goias Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Ceara 0-2 Goias.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Ceara, 28% draw, 29% Goias — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Ceara at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ceara vs Goias
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Caíque FrançaG
- 31BryanD
- 13Luiz OtávioD
- 71Gabriel Silva RochaD
- 12SanchezD
- 81Joao GabrielM
- 25Vinicius ZanoceloM
- 60Enzo LodovicoM
- 40RichardM
- 8Matheus AraújoM
- 73Saulo MineiroF
- 16Rian SantanaF
- 7Giovanni PavaniM
- 26RichardsonM
- 11N. FerreiraF
- 33ÉderD
- 2Rafael RamosD
- 29VinaM
- 77Lenny LobatoF
- 94R. LópezF
- 23TadeuG
- 54Djalma SilvaD
- 3Luiz FelipeD
- 14Lucas RibeiroD
- 6NicolasD
- 5Filipe MachadoM
- 97LourençoM
- 10Lucas LimaM
- 35LuquinhasM
- 40KaduM
- 11Felipe ClementeF
- 55Guilherme BaldóriaM
- 66Danilo CunhaD
- 28GegêM
- 21Jean Carlos Alves FerreiraM
- 8JuninhoM
- 25Luis FellipeD
- 4Ramon MenezesD
- 2Rodrigo SoaresD
- 1Thiago RodriguesG
Form going into Ceara vs Goias
Ceara
Serie B
- D2-2Juventude17 October 2026
Goias
Serie B
- D0-0Nautico Recife19 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Ceara | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 44 |
| 8 | Goias | 38 | 17 | 7 | 14 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 58 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ceara vs Goias
- 4 July 2026Goias 2–0 CearaSerie B
- 13 August 2024Goias 2–1 CearaSerie B
- 20 April 2024Ceara 1–1 GoiasSerie B
- 5 October 2022Ceara 1–1 GoiasSerie A
- 12 June 2022Goias 1–1 CearaSerie A
- 21 January 2021Goias 0–4 CearaSerie A
Leading scorers: Ceara and Goias
Ceara
GoalsAssists
- Richard74
Goias
GoalsAssists
- Kadu111
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Goias won 2–0 at Ceara. The model had leaned towards a win for Ceara at 43% and given a win for Goias 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Carlos Eduardo de Sousa Leopoldino 90+2' for Goias, Carlos Eduardo de Sousa Leopoldino 90+5' for Goias. On expected goals it finished 0.99–1.89.
How the call on Ceara v Goias has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 60% / 24% / 16% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 43% / 28% / 29%: the biggest move is Ceara's chance of winning, down 17 points.
- Ceara win43%▼ −17
- Draw28%▲ +4
- Goias win29%▲ +13
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.