Bahia vs Sao Paulo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Bahia 3-2 Sao Paulo.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Bahia, 29% draw, 24% Sao Paulo — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Bahia at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bahia vs Sao Paulo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1RonaldoG
- 99C. OliveraD
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 33David DuarteD
- 3Marco MorenoD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 6Jean LucasM
- 5N. AcevedoM
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 9A. VélizF
- 7AdemirF
- 27EveraldoF
- 8Caio AlexandreM
- 23M. SanabriaF
- 43Luiz GustavoD
- 17G. HerreraG
- 31Roman GomezD
- 14ErickM
- 77Ruan PabloF
- 23RafaelG
- 28NewtonD
- 5R. ArboledaD
- 35SabinoD
- 32Pedro LimaM
- 16D. BobadillaM
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 18WendellM
- 10LucianoM
- 7Lucas MouraM
- 9J. CalleriF
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 43G. SantanaF
- 48D. FerreiraM
- 46Pedro FerreiraM
- 80CaulyM
- 17André SilvaF
- 54Osorio LuisD
- 49Ryan FranciscoF
- 27Victor SáF
Form going into Bahia vs Sao Paulo
Bahia
Serie A
- D1-1away to Santos25 October 2026
- L0-3Flamengo18 October 2026
- W1-0Mirassol11 October 2026
Sao Paulo
Serie A
- D1-1away to Mirassol24 October 2026
- W1-0Vasco da Gama18 October 2026
- W2-1Vitoria11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 50 | 45 | +5 | 53 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bahia vs Sao Paulo
Bahia and Sao Paulo have met 7 times in the records we hold, Sao Paulo has won 4 of them to Bahia's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Bahia won the last one 3–2 on 29 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 |
| Sao Paulo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 22 goals, an average of 3.14 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 29 Oct 2026
Serie ABahia 3–2 Sao Paulo - 3 May 2026
Serie ASao Paulo 2–2 Bahia - 26 Oct 2025
Serie ASao Paulo 2–0 Bahia - 31 May 2025
Serie ABahia 2–1 Sao Paulo - 6 Nov 2024
Serie ABahia 0–3 Sao Paulo - 30 Jun 2024
Serie ASao Paulo 3–1 Bahia - 29 Nov 2023
Serie ABahia 0–1 Sao Paulo
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Bahia's attack rates 28% above Sao Paulo's, and Sao Paulo concede 9% fewer than Bahia. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Bahia and Sao Paulo
Bahia
GoalsAssists
- Luciano Juba112
Sao Paulo
GoalsAssists
- J. Calleri102
- Luciano91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bahia beat Sao Paulo 3–2. The model had made a win for Bahia its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Rodrigo Nestor 6' for Bahia, erick pulga 10' for Bahia, Lucas Moura 43' for Sao Paulo, Damian Bobadilla 45+5' for Sao Paulo, Marcos Victor 81' for Bahia. On expected goals it finished 1.17–0.91.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bahia a 18.7% chance to finish in the top four: 25.2% after a win, 13.6% after a draw, 8.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.2%, 6.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Bahia v Sao Paulo has moved
First published on 15 Oct at 50% / 28% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 47% / 29% / 24%: the biggest move is Bahia's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Bahia win47%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Sao Paulo win24%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.