29 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

Remo vs Botafogo Serie A prediction & result

Estadio Evandro Almeida, Belem
Referee: L. Torezin
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Remo 2-1 Botafogo.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Remo, 29% draw, 30% Botafogo — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Remo at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Remo97%Draw3%Botafogo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jandir Breno Souza Silva
8'
45'
🔁Matheus Martinsout: Kauan Toledo
⚽Leonel Picco
54'
56'
domingos andrade
59'
🔁domingos andradeout: Edenilson
59'
🔁Alex Tellesout: Paulinho
66'
🔁Cristian Medinaout: Tiquinho Soares
🔁David Francisco·Trindade Bragaout: Antonio Galeano
71'
🔁Patrick Bezerra do Nascimentoout: Edson Fernando
71'
76'
🔁Hakim Ziyechout: Júnior Santos
🔁Marlonout: Mayk Van Van
78'
83'
⚽Edenilson
🔁Leonel Piccoout: Ze Ricardo
84'
🔁Jandir Breno Souza Silvaout: Eduardo Melo
84'

Match stats — Remo vs Botafogo

35%Possession65%
11Shots15
4On target2
3Corners8
0.66xG1

Goals against chances

Remo2 from 0.66 xGmore than the chances were worth
Botafogo1 from 1.00 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Remo 4-3-3
  • 88Marcelo RangelG
  • 79MarcelinhoD
  • 13MarllonD
  • 18D. TchambaD
  • 6MarlonD
  • 14L. PiccoM
  • 28José WelisonM
  • 8PatrickM
  • 26David FranciscoF
  • 19Gabriel TaliariF
  • 7Jája SilvaF
Substitutes
  • 39Eduardo MeloF
  • 55Zé RicardoM
  • 94Ygor VinhasG
  • 22Yago PikachuM
  • 15Vitor BuenoF
  • 77MaykD
  • 35Edson FernandoM
  • 21A. GaleanoF
  • 97IvanG
Coach: Thiago Carpini
Botafogo 4-2-3-1
  • 12Gabriel BatistaG
  • 2VitinhoD
  • 5N. FerraresiD
  • 21MarçalD
  • 13Alex TellesD
  • 91Domingos AndradeM
  • 75HuguinhoM
  • 22H. ZiyechM
  • 6C. MedinaM
  • 11Matheus MartinsM
  • 19Arthur CabralF
Substitutes
  • 17WarlesonG
  • 25AllanM
  • 90DaniloF
  • 77L. VillalbaF
  • 9Tiquinho SoaresF
  • 4M. PonteD
  • 29PaulinhoD
  • 33L. MonzónD
  • 59Kauan ToledoM
Coach: Tite

Form going into Remo vs Botafogo

Remo

Serie A

  • L0-1away to Cruzeiro23 October 2026
  • D1-1RB Bragantino18 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Vasco da Gama10 October 2026

Botafogo

Serie A

  • L0-3away to Internacional24 October 2026
  • W1-0Chapecoense17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Coritiba12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Remo34611173757-2029
12Botafogo34119144653-742

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Remo vs Botafogo

  • 2 May 2026Botafogo 1–2 RemoSerie A
  • 4 September 2021Remo 0–1 BotafogoSerie B
  • 13 June 2021Botafogo 3–0 RemoSerie B

Leading scorers: Remo and Botafogo

Remo

GoalsAssists

  • Jája Silva91

Botafogo

GoalsAssists

  • Danilo Santos102

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Remo beat Botafogo 2–1. The model had made a win for Remo its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jandir Breno Souza Silva 8' for Remo, Leonel Picco 54' for Remo, Edenilson 83' for Botafogo. On expected goals it finished 0.66–1.00.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Botafogo a 5.1% chance to finish in the bottom four: under 1% after a win, 4.9% after a draw, 7.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.9%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Remo v Botafogo has moved

First published on 15 Oct at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Botafogo's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Remo win41%▲ +2
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. Botafogo win30%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.