Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vasco da Gama 1-4 Flamengo.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Vasco da Gama, 27% draw, 48% Flamengo — fair odds of 4.00, 3.70 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Flamengo at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Léo JardimG
- 2Puma RodríguezD
- 55Gabriel PereiraD
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 8JairM
- 18Marino HinestrozaM
- 22Alan LescanoM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 9Facundo ColidioM
- 20BrennerF
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 19Bruno DuarteF
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 7DavidF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 4Alan SaldiviaD
- 30Robert RenanD
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 1Agustín RossiG
- 2Guillermo VarelaD
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 21JorginhoM
- 5Erick PulgarM
- 19Gonzalo PlataM
- 10Giorgian de ArrascaetaM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 9Pedro GuilhermeF
- 11Lucas PaquetáM
- 7Luiz AraújoF
- 27Bruno HenriqueF
- 30Joaquín FreitasF
- 42AndrewG
- 49Dyogo AlvesG
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 44VitãoD
- 61João VictorD
Form going into Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo
Vasco da Gama
Serie A
- W3-2Corinthians24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sao Paulo18 October 2026
Flamengo
Serie A
- W3-2Atletico Mineiro26 October 2026
- W3-0away to Bahia18 October 2026
- W1-0Fluminense11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Vasco da Gama | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 44 |
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71 | 29 | +42 | 76 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama
Flamengo and Vasco da Gama have met 7 times in the records we hold, Flamengo has won 4 of them to Vasco da Gama's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
Flamengo won the last one 4–1 on 29 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 5 |
| Vasco da Gama | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 11 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 29 Oct 2026
Serie AVasco da Gama 1–4 Flamengo - 3 May 2026
Serie AFlamengo 2–2 Vasco da Gama - 22 Jan 2026
Carioca - 1Flamengo 1–0 Vasco da Gama - 21 Sep 2025
Serie AFlamengo 1–1 Vasco da Gama - 19 Apr 2025
Serie AVasco da Gama 0–0 Flamengo - 8 Mar 2025
Carioca - 1Flamengo 2–1 Vasco da Gama - 1 Mar 2025
Carioca - 1Vasco da Gama 0–1 Flamengo
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Flamengo's attack rates 44% above Vasco da Gama's, and Flamengo concede 32% fewer than Vasco da Gama. That gives Flamengo the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 1.34 | 0.82 |
| Vasco da Gama | 0.93 | 1.21 |
Leading scorers: Vasco da Gama and Flamengo
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 45 league goals as a side.
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Pedro206
- Samuel Lino129
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Flamengo won 4–1 at Vasco da Gama. The model had made a win for Flamengo its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Pedro 10' for Flamengo, A. Lescano 15' for Vasco da Gama, Pedro 41' for Flamengo, Samuel Lino 53' for Flamengo, Samuel Lino 85' for Flamengo. On expected goals it finished 1.24–1.66.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vasco da Gama these chances to finish in the bottom four: under 1% after a win, 3.5% after a draw, 7.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 7.5%.
For Flamengo the question was the chance to win the league, 67.9% going in: 79.3% after a win, 59.6% after a draw, 51.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 79.3%, 11.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Vasco da Gama v Flamengo has moved
First published on 15 Oct at 27% / 28% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 25% / 27% / 48%: the biggest move is Flamengo's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Vasco da Gama win25%▼ −2
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Flamengo win48%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.