Lens vs Paris FC Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lens 2-1 Paris FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Lens, 26% draw, 36% Paris FC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Lens at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lens vs Paris FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40R. RisserG
- 2R. AguilarD
- 6S. BaidooD
- 20J. TodiboD
- 23Saud AbdulhamidM
- 27M. CuisanceM
- 21A. HaidaraM
- 14M. UdolM
- 10F. ThauvinM
- 7F. SotocaM
- 29F. IvanovićF
- 9T. HazardM
- 16M. GorgelinG
- 38M. SoaresM
- 8Y. TitraouiM
- 4N. ÄelikD
- 28J. KadileF
- 32K. AntonioD
- 5A. BulatovićM
- 22M. SkóraśF
- 16O. NkambadioG
- 17A. CamaraD
- 5M. MbowD
- 42D. CoppolaD
- 6OtávioD
- 20M. LopezM
- 33P. Lees-MelouM
- 10I. KebbalM
- 7P. PagisM
- 15L. KoleoshoM
- 9L. SinayokoF
- 8E. ZabiM
- 28T. De SmetD
- 11J. KrassoF
- 3E. MbembaD
- 50Ibrahim MeïtéG
- 23R. MatondoM
- 27M. SimonF
- 18O. SissokoF
- 25Y. KoréD
Form going into Lens vs Paris FC
Lens
Ligue 1
- W3-1away to Estac Troyes17 October 2026
- W2-1Lyon9 October 2026
Paris FC
Ligue 1
- W4-3Rennes18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Lorient10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lens | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lens vs Paris FC
Lens and Paris FC have met 7 times in the records we hold, Lens has won 5 of them to Paris FC's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Lens won the last one 2–1 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 5 |
| Paris FC | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 14 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
Ligue 1Lens 2–1 Paris FC - 14 Feb 2026
Ligue 1Paris FC 0–5 Lens - 19 Oct 2025
Ligue 1Lens 2–1 Paris FC - 2 Jul 2022
Friendlies ClubsLens 0–0 Paris FC - 5 Aug 2020
Friendlies ClubsLens 1–2 Paris FC - 2 Mar 2020
Ligue 2Paris FC 0–2 Lens - 28 Sep 2019
Ligue 2Lens 2–1 Paris FC
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, the two attacks rate almost level, and Paris FC concede 18% fewer than Lens. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Lens and Paris FC
Lens
GoalsAssists
- F. Thauvin57
Paris FC
GoalsAssists
- L. Sinayoko95
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lens beat Paris FC 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Lens at 38%. The goals: Luca Koleosho 45+2' for Paris FC, Florian Thauvin 63' for Lens, Thorgan Hazard 83' for Lens. On expected goals it finished 1.10–0.44.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lens a 15.8% chance to finish in the top three: 20.2% after a win, 13.9% after a draw, 10.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.2%, 4.4 points higher than before the match.
For Paris FC the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 43.2% going in: 51.5% after a win, 42.1% after a draw, 36.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.4%, 6.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.