Saint Etienne vs Nantes Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: Saint Etienne 1-0 Nantes.
Before kick-off the model made it 64% Saint Etienne, 21% draw, 15% Nantes — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Saint Etienne at 64%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Saint Etienne vs Nantes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Mamour NdiayeG
- 13João FerreiraD
- 23K. PedroD
- 26J. Le CardinalD
- 11B. OldD
- 14Á. CsongvaiM
- 6M. BernauerM
- 20A. BoakyeM
- 10J. BreumM
- 22Z. DavitashviliM
- 7I. CardonaF
- 32Adam BaallalM
- 37N. Kasia NkondoD
- 5M. JaberM
- 40L. LavalléeG
- 17J. DuffusF
- 15Chico LambaD
- 31N. El JamaliM
- 46E. DhaouiM
- 8T. BalloF
- 30P. CarlgrenG
- 13F. DoucouréD
- 24F. GuilbertD
- 4S. SowD
- 98K. AmianD
- 26R. HachemD
- 44B. PierretM
- 28I. SissokoM
- 8J. LepenantM
- 37I. GanagoF
- 27T. RobinetF
- 23W. YounoussaM
- 20M. CafaroM
- 18F. CentonzeD
- 75A. CherniD
- 12K. CorredorF
- 1M. DupéG
- 7A. JoujouF
- 19Louis LerouxM
- 5L. PerrinD
Form going into Saint Etienne vs Nantes
Saint Etienne
Ligue 2
- W1-0away to RED Star FC 9317 October 2026
- W2-0Rodez10 October 2026
Nantes
Ligue 2
- L2-3Dunkerque17 October 2026
- D0-0Reims10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 11 | +14 | 28 |
| 14 | Nantes | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Saint Etienne vs Nantes
- 19 January 2025Saint Etienne 1–1 NantesLigue 1
- 29 September 2024Nantes 2–2 Saint EtienneLigue 1
- 21 May 2022Nantes 1–1 Saint EtienneLigue 1
- 22 December 2021Saint Etienne 0–1 NantesLigue 1
- 3 February 2021Saint Etienne 1–1 NantesLigue 1
- 20 September 2020Nantes 2–2 Saint EtienneLigue 1
Leading scorers: Saint Etienne and Nantes
Saint Etienne
GoalsAssists
- I. Cardona65
- A. Boakye63
- T. Ballo52
Nantes
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Saint Etienne beat Nantes 1–0. The model had made a win for Saint Etienne its most likely outcome, at 64%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Augustine Boakye 90' for Saint Etienne. On expected goals it finished 0.83–0.30.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Saint Etienne a 61.1% chance to finish top of the regular season: 63.2% after a win, 57.1% after a draw, 55.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 63.2%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
For Nantes the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 38.6% going in: 27.8% after a win, 36.5% after a draw, 40.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.8%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.