24 October 2026, 12:45 UTC

Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Exbud Arena, Kielce
Referee: Patryk Gryckiewicz, Poland
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Korona Kielce 1-0 GKS Katowice.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Korona Kielce, 27% draw, 40% GKS Katowice — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

GKS Katowice at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Korona Kielce95%Draw5%GKS Katowice0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Martin Remacle
27'
Wiktor Długosz
36'
38'
⚽Bartosz Nowak (pen)
🔁Martin Remacleout: Simon Gustafsson
45'
65'
Mateusz·Kowalczyk
65'
🔁Ilia Shkurinout: Adam Zreľák
🔁Mariusz Stępińskiout: Morgan Faßbender
65'
🔁Michael Ameyawout: Dawid Błanik
66'
⚽Camilo Menaassist: Wiktor Długosz
70'
71'
🔁Marcel Wedrychowskiout: Szymon bartlewicz
71'
🔁Borja Galanout: Mateusz Wdowiak
🔁Marcel·Pieczekout: Konrad Matuszewski
72'
76'
Bartosz Nowak
78'
Kacper Lukasiak
82'
🔁Kacper Lukasiakout: Arkadiusz Jedrych
82'
🔁Marcin Wasielewskiout: Erik Jirka
🔁Camilo Menaout: Bartlomiej·Smolarczyk
83'
89'
Pau Resta

Match stats — Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice

47%Possession53%
16Shots8
7On target2
9Corners4
1.1xG1.89

Goals against chances

Korona Kielce1 from 1.10 xGabout what the chances were worth
GKS Katowice0 from 1.89 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Korona Kielce 4-3-3
  • 1X. DziekońskiG
  • 71W. DługoszD
  • 23S. RubežićD
  • 2A. MosórD
  • 6M. PięczekD
  • 35Kamil JakubczykM
  • 18P. HellebrandM
  • 8M. RemacleM
  • 30C. MenaF
  • 14M. StępińskiF
  • 19M. AmeyawF
Substitutes
  • 87R. MamlaG
  • 11K. MatuszewskiD
  • 10NonoM
  • 24B. SmolarczykD
  • 86Simon GustafsonM
  • 99Daniel BakF
  • 67N. BarczakD
  • 7D. BłanikM
  • 9S. DavidovićM
Coach: R. Kolendowicz
GKS Katowice 3-4-3
  • 87G. KobylakG
  • 30A. CzerwińskiD
  • 6L. KlemenzD
  • 55Pau RestaD
  • 23M. WasielewskiM
  • 19K. ŁukasiakM
  • 77M. KowalczykM
  • 8Borja GalánM
  • 10M. WędrychowskiF
  • 17I. ShkurinF
  • 27B. NowakF
Substitutes
  • 4A. JędrychD
  • 31S. BartlewiczM
  • 97E. JirkaM
  • 1M. KikolskiG
  • 22S. MilewskiM
  • 14M. OlsenD
  • 7M. WdowiakM
  • 68B. WolskiM
  • 99A. ZreľákF
Coach: R. Górak

Form going into Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice

Korona Kielce

Ekstraklasa

  • L1-6away to Lech Poznan18 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Pogon Szczecin11 October 2026

GKS Katowice

Ekstraklasa

  • L0-1Pogon Szczecin17 October 2026
  • W2-1Wieczysta Kraków12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Korona Kielce145361421-718
8GKS Katowice147072520+521

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice

  • 25 April 2026Korona Kielce 1–1 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 25 October 2025GKS Katowice 1–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 5 May 2025Korona Kielce 2–1 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 4 November 2024GKS Katowice 1–2 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 10 December 2022Korona Kielce 0–1 GKS KatowiceFriendlies Clubs
  • 14 May 2022Korona Kielce 1–2 GKS KatowiceI Liga

Leading scorers: Korona Kielce and GKS Katowice

Korona Kielce

GoalsAssists

  • M. Stępiński60

GKS Katowice

GoalsAssists

  • I. Shkurin82
  • B. Nowak78

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Korona Kielce beat GKS Katowice 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for GKS Katowice at 40% and given a win for Korona Kielce 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Camilo Mena 70' for Korona Kielce. On expected goals it finished 1.10–1.89.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Korona Kielce a 8.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.6% after a win, 8.1% after a draw, 10.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.6%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.

For GKS Katowice the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 8.9% going in: 11.3% after a win, 7.7% after a draw, 5.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.8%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Korona Kielce v GKS Katowice has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 37% / 27% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 33% / 27% / 40%: the biggest move is Korona Kielce's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Korona Kielce win33%▼ −4
  2. Draw27%=
  3. GKS Katowice win40%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.