24 October 2026, 09:45 UTC

Akron vs Dynamo Premier League prediction & result

Samara Arena, Samara
Referee: Igor Kaplenkov
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Akron 3-1 Dynamo.

Before kick-off the model made it 21% Akron, 24% draw, 55% Dynamo — fair odds of 4.76, 4.17 and 1.82.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dynamo at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Akron94%Draw6%Dynamo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Artem Shumanskiyassist: Dmitriy Pestryakov
17'
Vyacheslav Bardybakhin
25'
31'
🔁Nicolas Marichalout: Juan Caceres
Kristijan Bistrović
36'
45'
🔁Daniil Fominout: Ivan Sergeev
55'
⚽Yaroslav Gladyshevassist: Ivan Sergeev
🔁Dmitriy Pestryakovout: Dudu Rodrigues
59'
⚽Kristijan Bistrović
70'
🔁Karlen Hovhannisyanout: Khetag Khosonov
71'
🔁Slobodan Tedićout: Maksim Boldyrev
71'
Stefan Loncar
73'
73'
🔁Arthur Gomesout: Maximiliano Gutierrez
73'
🔁Yaroslav Gladyshevout: Viktor Okishor
Srđan Blagojević
82'
🔁Roberto Fernándezout: Denis Popenkov
89'
🔁Kristijan Bistrovićout: Ionuț Nedelcearu
89'
89'
🔁Rubensout: Josue Casimir
⚽Maksim Boldyrev
90+4'

Match stats — Akron vs Dynamo

40%Possession60%
11Shots25
6On target5
0Corners11
0.86xG2.14

Goals against chances

Akron3 from 0.86 xGmore than the chances were worth
Dynamo1 from 2.14 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Akron 4-3-3
  • 88V. GudievG
  • 13V. BardybakhinD
  • 26João EscovalD
  • 19M. BokoevD
  • 21R. FernándezD
  • 6K. HovhannisyanM
  • 8K. BistrovićM
  • 15S. LončarM
  • 71D. PestryakovF
  • 9S. TedićF
  • 99A. ShumanskiyF
Substitutes
  • 81N. BazilevskiyM
  • 55M. VidosavljevićF
  • 2Y. RochaD
  • 89D. PopenkovM
  • 24I. NedelcearuD
  • 10Kevin ArevaloM
  • 91M. BoldyrevM
  • 69A. DmitrievF
  • 11DuduF
Coach: S. Blagojević
Dynamo 4-2-3-1
  • 99A. LunevG
  • 2N. MarichalD
  • 55M. OsipenkoD
  • 57David RicardoD
  • 8RubensD
  • 74D. FominM
  • 15D. GlebovM
  • 91Y. GladyshevM
  • 10BitelloM
  • 11Arthur GomesM
  • 70K. TyukavinF
Substitutes
  • 28M. GutiérrezF
  • 31I. LeshchukG
  • 60T. MarinkinM
  • 21A. MiranchukM
  • 88V. OkishorM
  • 1K. RasulovG
  • 33I. SergeevF
  • 7D. SkopintsevD
  • 6R. FernándezD
Coach: S. Schwarz

Form going into Akron vs Dynamo

Akron

Premier League

  • D1-1away to Dinamo Makhachkala17 October 2026
  • L0-1away to FC Rostov9 October 2026

Dynamo

Premier League

  • W3-1CSKA Moscow18 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Rubin11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Akron142661725-812
2Dynamo1410132313+1031

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Akron vs Dynamo

  • 18 July 2026Akron 0–1 DynamoFriendlies Clubs
  • 13 April 2026Akron 2–3 DynamoPremier League
  • 8 November 2025Dynamo 1–2 AkronPremier League
  • 18 May 2025Dynamo 2–1 AkronPremier League
  • 3 August 2024Akron 0–2 DynamoPremier League
  • 4 April 2023Dinamo Moscow 0–0 AkronCup

Leading scorers: Akron and Dynamo

Akron

GoalsAssists

  • Gilson Benchimol42

Dynamo

GoalsAssists

  • K. Tyukavin71
  • V. Okishor32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Akron beat Dynamo 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Dynamo at 55% and given a win for Akron 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Artem Shumanskiy 17' for Akron, Yaroslav Gladyshev 55' for Dynamo, Kristijan Bistrović 70' for Akron, Maksim Boldyrev 90+4' for Akron. On expected goals it finished 0.86–2.14.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Akron a 65.7% chance to finish in the bottom four: 55.0% after a win, 64.9% after a draw, 69.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.0%, 10.7 points lower than before the match.

For Dynamo the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 30.8% going in: 34.4% after a win, 26.5% after a draw, 23.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.6%, 7.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.