Premyer Liqa

1. Neftchi Baku — 24 points from 11 played (7 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 26 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +15. Form, oldest first: D D D W W.
2. Turan — 21 points from 11 played (6 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost), 12 scored, 8 conceded, goal difference +4. Form, oldest first: W L D W W.
3. Sabah FA — 21 points from 10 played (6 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 22 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference +16. Form, oldest first: D W D L D.
4. Qarabag — 19 points from 10 played (5 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost), 14 scored, 8 conceded, goal difference +6. Form, oldest first: W D D D L.
5. Zira — 19 points from 11 played (5 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost), 16 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: D D W D W.
6. Kapaz — 17 points from 10 played (5 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 10 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: W D W W L.
7. Şamaxı FK — 14 points from 11 played (3 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost), 17 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: D W L L D.
8. Imisli FK — 11 points from 11 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 6 lost), 9 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference -6. Form, oldest first: L W W L D.
9. Sumqayıt — 10 points from 10 played (2 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost), 13 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: W W L D D.
10. Qabala — 8 points from 11 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 7 lost), 6 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference -12. Form, oldest first: L L W D L.
11. Safa Baku — 5 points from 11 played (1 won, 2 drawn, 8 lost), 8 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference -12. Form, oldest first: L L L D D.
12. Araz — 4 points from 11 played (0 won, 4 drawn, 7 lost), 11 scored, 23 conceded, goal difference -12. Form, oldest first: L L L D D.

What moved

Measured against 2026-11-14, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 6 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Qarabag — chance of finishing top down 0.6, to 19.2%.
• Sabah FA — chance of finishing top up 0.4, to 55%.
• Neftchi Baku — chance of finishing top up 0.1, to 23.9%.
• Şamaxı FK — bottom-three risk down 0.1, to 2.7%.
• Turan — chance of finishing top up 0.1, to 1.5%.

Season projection

Every one of the 134 matches this phase has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Relegation - Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-11-14, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Sabah FA — projected to finish on 72.1 points, from 21 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 55% (up 0.4), finishes top four 99.2%, bottom two 0%.
2. Neftchi Baku — projected to finish on 67.5 points, from 24 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 23.9% (up 0.1), finishes top four 97.1%, bottom two 0%.
3. Qarabag — projected to finish on 66 points, from 19 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 19.2% (down 0.6), finishes top four 93.5%, bottom two 0%.
4. Turan — projected to finish on 56 points, from 21 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.5% (up 0.1), finishes top four 62%, bottom two 0%.
5. Zira — projected to finish on 50.2 points, from 19 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.3% (down 0.1), finishes top four 28.9%, bottom two 0.2%.
6. Şamaxı FK — projected to finish on 45.6 points, from 14 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 12.8%, bottom two 0.9%.
7. Kapaz — projected to finish on 41 points, from 17 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 4.8%, bottom two 3%.
8. Sumqayıt — projected to finish on 35.9 points, from 10 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 1.2%, bottom two 13.2%.
9. Imisli FK — projected to finish on 33.6 points, from 11 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.5%, bottom two 16.8%.
10. Qabala — projected to finish on 29.7 points, from 8 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.1%, bottom two 36.6%.
11. Safa Baku — projected to finish on 25.3 points, from 5 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom two 63.8%.
12. Araz — projected to finish on 24.7 points, from 4 after 11 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom two 65.6%.

Top scorers

1. U. Rahmonaliyev (Sabah FA) — 1 goal.
2. Benito (Kapaz) — 0 goals.
3. Oumar Diaw (Safa Baku) — 0 goals.