Serie A (Brazil)

1. Flamengo — 76 points from 34 played (23 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost), 71 scored, 29 conceded, goal difference +42. Form, oldest first: W W W W W.
2. Palmeiras — 73 points from 34 played (21 won, 10 drawn, 3 lost), 62 scored, 23 conceded, goal difference +39. Form, oldest first: W W W D W.
3. Cruzeiro — 60 points from 34 played (18 won, 6 drawn, 10 lost), 55 scored, 48 conceded, goal difference +7. Form, oldest first: L W W W W.
4. Fluminense — 57 points from 34 played (16 won, 9 drawn, 9 lost), 55 scored, 42 conceded, goal difference +13. Form, oldest first: L L L W W.
5. Atletico Paranaense — 54 points from 34 played (15 won, 9 drawn, 10 lost), 51 scored, 43 conceded, goal difference +8. Form, oldest first: W L D L L.
6. Bahia — 53 points from 34 played (14 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost), 50 scored, 45 conceded, goal difference +5. Form, oldest first: W L D W L.
7. Atletico Mineiro — 51 points from 35 played (14 won, 9 drawn, 12 lost), 44 scored, 40 conceded, goal difference +4. Form, oldest first: W L L L D.
8. RB Bragantino — 47 points from 34 played (13 won, 8 drawn, 13 lost), 44 scored, 39 conceded, goal difference +5. Form, oldest first: W D L W W.
9. Santos — 47 points from 34 played (12 won, 11 drawn, 11 lost), 50 scored, 49 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: L W D D L.
10. Sao Paulo — 44 points from 34 played (12 won, 8 drawn, 14 lost), 39 scored, 39 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: W W D L D.
11. Vasco da Gama — 44 points from 34 played (12 won, 8 drawn, 14 lost), 45 scored, 50 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: L W L W W.
12. Botafogo — 42 points from 34 played (11 won, 9 drawn, 14 lost), 46 scored, 53 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: D W L L W.
13. Coritiba — 42 points from 34 played (11 won, 9 drawn, 14 lost), 40 scored, 51 conceded, goal difference -11. Form, oldest first: D L L W L.
14. Mirassol — 41 points from 35 played (10 won, 11 drawn, 14 lost), 39 scored, 48 conceded, goal difference -9. Form, oldest first: W D L W D.
15. Vitoria — 38 points from 34 played (10 won, 8 drawn, 16 lost), 35 scored, 51 conceded, goal difference -16. Form, oldest first: L D D L L.
16. Internacional — 38 points from 34 played (9 won, 11 drawn, 14 lost), 38 scored, 42 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: D L W L W.
17. Corinthians — 37 points from 34 played (9 won, 10 drawn, 15 lost), 36 scored, 42 conceded, goal difference -6. Form, oldest first: L D L W D.
18. Gremio — 37 points from 34 played (9 won, 10 drawn, 15 lost), 38 scored, 47 conceded, goal difference -9. Form, oldest first: D L W W L.
19. Remo — 29 points from 34 played (6 won, 11 drawn, 17 lost), 37 scored, 57 conceded, goal difference -20. Form, oldest first: D D L W L.
20. Chapecoense — 21 points from 34 played (4 won, 9 drawn, 21 lost), 33 scored, 70 conceded, goal difference -37. Form, oldest first: L W L L L.

What moved

Measured against 2026-11-14, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 9 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Flamengo — title chance up 1.9, to 79.2%.
• Palmeiras — title chance down 1.9, to 20.8%.
• Gremio — bottom-three risk down 1.5, to 28.7%.
• Corinthians — bottom-three risk up 1.2, to 21.4%.
• Vitoria — bottom-three risk up 1.1, to 31.7%.

Season projection

Every one of the 39 matches this competition has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. Movement is measured against 2026-11-14, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Flamengo — projected to finish on 84.4 points, from 76 after 34 played. Wins it 79.2% (up 1.9), finishes top four 100%, bottom four 0%.
2. Palmeiras — projected to finish on 81.2 points, from 73 after 34 played. Wins it 20.8% (down 1.9), finishes top four 100%, bottom four 0%.
3. Cruzeiro — projected to finish on 66.4 points, from 60 after 34 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 94.6%, bottom four 0%.
4. Fluminense — projected to finish on 63.2 points, from 57 after 34 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 77.2%, bottom four 0%.
5. Atletico Paranaense — projected to finish on 59.6 points, from 54 after 34 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 14.2%, bottom four 0%.
6. Bahia — projected to finish on 59.2 points, from 53 after 34 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 13.2%, bottom four 0%.
7. Atletico Mineiro — projected to finish on 55.8 points, from 51 after 35 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.7%, bottom four 0%.
8. Santos — projected to finish on 54 points, from 47 after 34 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.1%, bottom four 0%.
9. RB Bragantino — projected to finish on 52.9 points, from 47 after 34 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.1%, bottom four 0%.
10. Vasco da Gama — projected to finish on 49.9 points, from 44 after 34 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 0.2%.
11. Sao Paulo — projected to finish on 49.5 points, from 44 after 34 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 0%.
12. Botafogo — projected to finish on 46.9 points, from 42 after 34 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 2.3%.
13. Coritiba — projected to finish on 44.9 points, from 42 after 34 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 10.5%.
14. Mirassol — projected to finish on 44.6 points, from 41 after 35 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 14%.
15. Internacional — projected to finish on 43.1 points, from 38 after 34 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 29.1%.
16. Corinthians — projected to finish on 42.5 points, from 37 after 34 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 38.5%.
17. Vitoria — projected to finish on 42.2 points, from 38 after 34 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 55.2%.
18. Gremio — projected to finish on 42 points, from 37 after 34 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 50.5%.
19. Remo — projected to finish on 34.1 points, from 29 after 34 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 99.9%.
20. Chapecoense — projected to finish on 23.3 points, from 21 after 34 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom four 100%.

Top scorers

1. K. Viveros (Atletico Paranaense) — 21 goals, 3 assists.
2. Pedro (Flamengo) — 20 goals, 6 assists.
3. Gabriel Barbosa (Santos) — 15 goals, 4 assists.
4. Kaio Jorge (Cruzeiro) — 14 goals, 2 assists.
5. Samuel Lino (Flamengo) — 12 goals, 9 assists.
6. Carlos Vinícius (Gremio) — 11 goals, 1 assist.
7. Luciano Juba (Bahia) — 11 goals, 2 assists.
8. J. López (Palmeiras) — 10 goals, 7 assists.
9. Danilo Santos (Botafogo) — 10 goals, 2 assists.
10. Rene (Vitoria) — 10 goals, 1 assist.
11. Maurício (Palmeiras) — 10 goals, 1 assist.
12. J. Calleri (Sao Paulo) — 10 goals, 2 assists.
13. Matheus Pereira (Cruzeiro) — 9 goals, 7 assists.
14. Pedro Rocha (Coritiba) — 9 goals, 1 assist.
15. Jája Silva (Remo) — 9 goals, 1 assist.
16. John Kennedy (Fluminense) — 9 goals, 1 assist.
17. Luciano (Sao Paulo) — 9 goals, 1 assist.
18. Breno Lopes (Coritiba) — 8 goals, 1 assist.
19. Neymar (Santos) — 8 goals, 3 assists.
20. J. Carbonero (Internacional) — 7 goals, 4 assists.