League Two

1. Salford City — 32 points from 15 played (10 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 26 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference +10. Form, oldest first: W W W W D.
2. Barnet — 26 points from 13 played (7 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost), 28 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference +10. Form, oldest first: W L D W D.
3. Grimsby — 23 points from 15 played (6 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost), 28 scored, 19 conceded, goal difference +9. Form, oldest first: L D W W W.
4. York — 23 points from 15 played (6 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost), 25 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference +4. Form, oldest first: D W L L W.
5. Crewe — 23 points from 15 played (5 won, 8 drawn, 2 lost), 19 scored, 19 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: W L L D D.
6. Walsall — 22 points from 13 played (5 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost), 21 scored, 12 conceded, goal difference +9. Form, oldest first: D D W L W.
7. Chesterfield — 22 points from 15 played (6 won, 4 drawn, 5 lost), 26 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference +5. Form, oldest first: L D W L W.
8. Exeter City — 22 points from 15 played (6 won, 4 drawn, 5 lost), 12 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: D W W L W.
9. Cheltenham — 21 points from 15 played (6 won, 3 drawn, 6 lost), 23 scored, 26 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: L W W L L.
10. Shrewsbury — 21 points from 15 played (6 won, 3 drawn, 6 lost), 19 scored, 23 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: W W D L W.
11. Fleetwood Town — 20 points from 15 played (5 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost), 19 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: W L L W W.
12. Gillingham — 20 points from 15 played (5 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost), 20 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: L D L W L.
13. Accrington Stanley — 19 points from 15 played (4 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost), 25 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference +4. Form, oldest first: W D W D L.
14. Newport County — 19 points from 15 played (4 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost), 22 scored, 19 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: D D L W D.
15. Tranmere — 19 points from 15 played (4 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost), 19 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: L W D W L.
16. Swindon Town — 19 points from 15 played (5 won, 4 drawn, 6 lost), 16 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: D W D W L.
17. Port Vale — 18 points from 13 played (5 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost), 14 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: W D L W W.
18. Bristol Rovers — 16 points from 15 played (5 won, 1 drawn, 9 lost), 17 scored, 25 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: L L D L L.
19. Northampton — 15 points from 14 played (3 won, 6 drawn, 5 lost), 10 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: L W D L D.
20. Oldham — 15 points from 15 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 8 lost), 16 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: L D L W L.
21. Colchester — 15 points from 14 played (3 won, 6 drawn, 5 lost), 14 scored, 19 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: D D L L W.
22. Rochdale — 15 points from 15 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 8 lost), 17 scored, 27 conceded, goal difference -10. Form, oldest first: L D L L L.
23. Rotherham — 12 points from 14 played (2 won, 6 drawn, 6 lost), 18 scored, 25 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: L L D D L.
24. Crawley Town — 9 points from 12 played (2 won, 3 drawn, 7 lost), 13 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: D L L D W.

What moved

Measured against 2026-11-14, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 24 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Rochdale — bottom-three risk up 10.7, to 58.1%.
• Salford City — chance of finishing top down 8.2, to 29%.
• Port Vale — chance of finishing top up 0.9, to 1.1%; bottom-three risk down 7.5, to 2.1%.
• Bristol Rovers — chance of finishing top down 0.2, to 0%; bottom-three risk up 6.6, to 20.4%.
• Shrewsbury — bottom-three risk down 6.3, to 13.7%.

Season projection

Every one of the 378 matches this phase has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Semi-finals, Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-11-14, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Barnet — projected to finish on 85.3 points, from 26 after 13 played. Finishes top of the regular season 36.8% (down 0.2), finishes top three 70.4%, bottom two 0%.
2. Salford City — projected to finish on 84.1 points, from 32 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 29% (down 8.2), finishes top three 64.9%, bottom two 0%.
3. Grimsby — projected to finish on 77.3 points, from 23 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 12.1% (up 5.8), finishes top three 41.7%, bottom two 0.1%.
4. Walsall — projected to finish on 74.9 points, from 22 after 13 played. Finishes top of the regular season 7.8% (down 0.7), finishes top three 30.4%, bottom two 0.1%.
5. Chesterfield — projected to finish on 72.6 points, from 22 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 4.7% (up 2.6), finishes top three 22.4%, bottom two 0.3%.
6. York — projected to finish on 72.6 points, from 23 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 4.1% (up 1.7), finishes top three 22.3%, bottom two 0.1%.
7. Exeter City — projected to finish on 70 points, from 22 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.3% (up 0.1), finishes top three 11.9%, bottom two 0.2%.
8. Port Vale — projected to finish on 65.6 points, from 18 after 13 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.1% (up 0.9), finishes top three 6.9%, bottom two 0.9%.
9. Crewe — projected to finish on 65.1 points, from 23 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.7% (down 0.5), finishes top three 5.4%, bottom two 1.1%.
10. Fleetwood Town — projected to finish on 64 points, from 20 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.6% (up 0.4), finishes top three 5.1%, bottom two 1.6%.
11. Accrington Stanley — projected to finish on 63.5 points, from 19 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.5% (down 0.6), finishes top three 4.9%, bottom two 2.3%.
12. Newport County — projected to finish on 61.4 points, from 19 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.5% (down 0.1), finishes top three 3.1%, bottom two 2.9%.
13. Cheltenham — projected to finish on 61.4 points, from 21 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.3% (down 0.1), finishes top three 3.1%, bottom two 3%.
14. Swindon Town — projected to finish on 59 points, from 19 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.2% (down 0.3), finishes top three 1.5%, bottom two 5.4%.
15. Oldham — projected to finish on 57.6 points, from 15 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0% (down 0.2), finishes top three 0.7%, bottom two 5.7%.
16. Northampton — projected to finish on 57.5 points, from 15 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top three 1.1%, bottom two 4.4%.
17. Gillingham — projected to finish on 57.3 points, from 20 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1% (down 0.4), finishes top three 1.5%, bottom two 7.8%.
18. Shrewsbury — projected to finish on 56.6 points, from 21 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top three 0.5%, bottom two 7.4%.
19. Colchester — projected to finish on 56.2 points, from 15 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0% (down 0.1), finishes top three 0.8%, bottom two 8.4%.
20. Tranmere — projected to finish on 55.8 points, from 19 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1% (down 0.1), finishes top three 0.9%, bottom two 9.6%.
21. Bristol Rovers — projected to finish on 54.1 points, from 16 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0% (down 0.2), finishes top three 0.4%, bottom two 12.1%.
22. Rotherham — projected to finish on 46.9 points, from 12 after 14 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top three 0.2%, bottom two 36.9%.
23. Rochdale — projected to finish on 44.9 points, from 15 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top three 0%, bottom two 45.5%.
24. Crawley Town — projected to finish on 44.8 points, from 9 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top three 0.1%, bottom two 44%.

Top scorers

1. K. Tshimanga (Barnet) — 10 goals, 4 assists.
2. A. Drinan (Swindon Town) — 9 goals, 1 assist.
3. C. McCann (Cheltenham) — 9 goals, 1 assist.
4. A. Pressley (Walsall) — 9 goals.
5. P. Mullin (Rotherham) — 8 goals.
6. O. Pearce (York) — 7 goals, 4 assists.
7. J. Woods (Accrington Stanley) — 7 goals, 1 assist.
8. C. Lakin (Barnet) — 6 goals, 3 assists.
9. A. Newby (York) — 6 goals, 1 assist.
10. L. Marsh (Chesterfield) — 6 goals, 1 assist.
11. Ronan Hale (Gillingham) — 6 goals, 1 assist.
12. J. Gibson (Crewe) — 5 goals, 2 assists.
13. L. Bonis (Chesterfield) — 5 goals, 2 assists.
14. J. Davison (Shrewsbury) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
15. R. Coughlan (Fleetwood Town) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
16. D. Jones (Tranmere) — 5 goals.
17. S. Gwengwe (Newport County) — 5 goals.
18. C. Caton (Accrington Stanley) — 5 goals.
19. C. Kavanagh (Oldham) — 5 goals, 4 assists.
20. M. Langstaff (Salford City) — 5 goals, 1 assist.