Championship (England)

1. Birmingham — 29 points from 15 played (8 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost), 28 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference +14. Form, oldest first: W L W W W.
2. Middlesbrough — 29 points from 15 played (8 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost), 30 scored, 19 conceded, goal difference +11. Form, oldest first: D W W L D.
3. Stoke City — 29 points from 15 played (9 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost), 24 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference +6. Form, oldest first: W D W W W.
4. Wolves — 28 points from 15 played (8 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost), 26 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference +8. Form, oldest first: D W W W D.
5. West Brom — 28 points from 15 played (8 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost), 23 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference +8. Form, oldest first: W D W D W.
6. Swansea — 26 points from 15 played (8 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost), 22 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference +4. Form, oldest first: L L W L L.
7. Southampton — 24 points from 15 played (8 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost), 29 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference +14. Form, oldest first: D W W D L.
8. QPR — 24 points from 15 played (6 won, 6 drawn, 3 lost), 24 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference +6. Form, oldest first: L W L D W.
9. West Ham — 23 points from 15 played (6 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost), 37 scored, 23 conceded, goal difference +14. Form, oldest first: W L L D L.
10. Sheffield Utd — 22 points from 15 played (6 won, 4 drawn, 5 lost), 21 scored, 19 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: W D W W L.
11. Portsmouth — 22 points from 15 played (6 won, 4 drawn, 5 lost), 20 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: D W D W L.
12. Norwich — 21 points from 15 played (7 won, 0 drawn, 8 lost), 32 scored, 24 conceded, goal difference +8. Form, oldest first: L W W W W.
13. Blackburn — 21 points from 15 played (6 won, 3 drawn, 6 lost), 22 scored, 23 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: L W L L W.
14. Cardiff — 18 points from 15 played (4 won, 6 drawn, 5 lost), 27 scored, 27 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: D W L D W.
15. Wrexham — 18 points from 15 played (4 won, 6 drawn, 5 lost), 18 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: W L L W D.
16. Millwall — 18 points from 15 played (5 won, 3 drawn, 7 lost), 23 scored, 27 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: D L W L L.
17. Bristol City — 18 points from 15 played (5 won, 3 drawn, 7 lost), 16 scored, 24 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: L D W L L.
18. Bolton — 17 points from 15 played (5 won, 2 drawn, 8 lost), 20 scored, 29 conceded, goal difference -9. Form, oldest first: D L L W L.
19. Charlton — 17 points from 15 played (4 won, 5 drawn, 6 lost), 13 scored, 23 conceded, goal difference -10. Form, oldest first: L L L L W.
20. Watford — 15 points from 15 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 8 lost), 13 scored, 23 conceded, goal difference -10. Form, oldest first: W L L W D.
21. Lincoln — 15 points from 15 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 8 lost), 15 scored, 26 conceded, goal difference -11. Form, oldest first: D W L L L.
22. Burnley — 10 points from 15 played (1 won, 7 drawn, 7 lost), 22 scored, 31 conceded, goal difference -9. Form, oldest first: L L D D L.
23. Derby — 10 points from 15 played (2 won, 4 drawn, 9 lost), 14 scored, 30 conceded, goal difference -16. Form, oldest first: L D L L W.
24. Preston — 8 points from 15 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 11 lost), 13 scored, 30 conceded, goal difference -17. Form, oldest first: L D L L W.

What moved

Measured against 2026-11-12, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 10 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Southampton — chance of finishing top down 0.7, to 18.7%.
• Derby — bottom-three risk down 0.2, to 46.7%.
• Birmingham — chance of finishing top up 0.1, to 21.8%.
• Middlesbrough — chance of finishing top up 0.1, to 21.3%.
• Millwall — chance of finishing top up 0.1, to 0.7%; bottom-three risk down 0.1, to 2.5%.

Season projection

Every one of the 372 matches this phase has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Semi-finals, Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-11-12, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Birmingham — projected to finish on 83.5 points, from 29 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 21.8% (up 0.1), finishes top two 38.8%, bottom three 0%.
2. Middlesbrough — projected to finish on 83.3 points, from 29 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 21.3% (up 0.1), finishes top two 35.8%, bottom three 0%.
3. Southampton — projected to finish on 82.1 points, from 24 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 18.7% (down 0.7), finishes top two 34.6%, bottom three 0%.
4. West Ham — projected to finish on 78.4 points, from 23 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 10.7%, finishes top two 22.6%, bottom three 0%.
5. Wolves — projected to finish on 78.2 points, from 28 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 10.3%, finishes top two 21.4%, bottom three 0%.
6. West Brom — projected to finish on 76.7 points, from 28 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 5.1% (up 0.1), finishes top two 13.7%, bottom three 0.1%.
7. Norwich — projected to finish on 74.5 points, from 21 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 3.6%, finishes top two 10.5%, bottom three 0.1%.
8. Stoke City — projected to finish on 73.8 points, from 29 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 3.6% (up 0.1), finishes top two 8.6%, bottom three 0.1%.
9. Swansea — projected to finish on 71.5 points, from 26 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.9% (up 0.1), finishes top two 5%, bottom three 0.1%.
10. QPR — projected to finish on 66.8 points, from 24 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.4%, finishes top two 1.7%, bottom three 0.4%.
11. Sheffield Utd — projected to finish on 65.6 points, from 22 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.6%, finishes top two 1.8%, bottom three 0.9%.
12. Portsmouth — projected to finish on 63.6 points, from 22 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.7%, finishes top two 1.7%, bottom three 1.7%.
13. Cardiff — projected to finish on 62.4 points, from 18 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.4%, finishes top two 1.1%, bottom three 2.5%.
14. Millwall — projected to finish on 61.7 points, from 18 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.7% (up 0.1), finishes top two 1.6%, bottom three 2.5%.
15. Blackburn — projected to finish on 61.3 points, from 21 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.2%, finishes top two 0.7%, bottom three 3%.
16. Wrexham — projected to finish on 61.3 points, from 18 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.2%, finishes top two 0.6%, bottom three 3.5%.
17. Bristol City — projected to finish on 51.8 points, from 18 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 19%.
18. Bolton — projected to finish on 51.6 points, from 17 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 18.2%.
19. Lincoln — projected to finish on 48.4 points, from 15 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 30%.
20. Charlton — projected to finish on 48 points, from 17 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 29.2%.
21. Burnley — projected to finish on 47.6 points, from 10 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 31.7%.
22. Watford — projected to finish on 47 points, from 15 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 34.8%.
23. Derby — projected to finish on 44.4 points, from 10 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 46.7%.
24. Preston — projected to finish on 37 points, from 8 after 15 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 75.5%.

Top scorers

1. W. Lankshear (Middlesbrough) — 13 goals.
2. A. Guðjohnsen (Blackburn) — 10 goals, 1 assist.
3. J. Moylan (Cardiff) — 10 goals, 3 assists.
4. C. Larin (Southampton) — 7 goals.
5. J. Bowen (West Ham) — 7 goals, 7 assists.
6. Fer López (Wolves) — 6 goals, 3 assists.
7. S. Dalby (Bolton) — 6 goals.
8. A. Priske (Birmingham) — 6 goals, 1 assist.
9. I. Price (West Brom) — 6 goals, 3 assists.
10. J. Morgan (West Brom) — 5 goals, 4 assists.
11. K. Moore (Wrexham) — 5 goals, 2 assists.
12. O. Afolayan (Blackburn) — 5 goals, 2 assists.
13. J. McGlynn (Stoke City) — 5 goals, 2 assists.
14. Y. Salech (Cardiff) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
15. P. Bamford (Sheffield Utd) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
16. K. Mavropanos (West Ham) — 5 goals.
17. M. Touré (Norwich) — 5 goals.
18. R. Kone (QPR) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
19. S. Twine (Bristol City) — 5 goals.
20. L. Millar (Birmingham) — 4 goals, 3 assists.