- West Ham — 14 points from 7 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 20 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference +11. Form, oldest first: D W W W W.
- Swansea — 14 points from 7 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 11 scored, 5 conceded, goal difference +6. Form, oldest first: W W D L W.
- Middlesbrough — 14 points from 7 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 14 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference +4. Form, oldest first: W D W W D.
- West Brom — 14 points from 7 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 10 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: L D W W D.
- QPR — 12 points from 7 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 8 scored, 5 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: W W L D D.
- Charlton — 12 points from 7 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 6 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: W D L D D.
- Wolves — 11 points from 6 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 14 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference +4. Form, oldest first: W W L D W.
- Lincoln — 11 points from 7 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost), 6 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: W D D W W.
- Southampton — 10 points from 7 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 18 scored, 8 conceded, goal difference +10. Form, oldest first: W D D W W.
- Birmingham — 10 points from 7 played (2 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost), 10 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: W D D L W.
- Millwall — 10 points from 7 played (3 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 13 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: L L W L D.
- Stoke City — 10 points from 7 played (3 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 11 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: L W W D W.
- Bristol City — 10 points from 7 played (3 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 10 scored, 12 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: W W W L L.
- Norwich — 9 points from 7 played (3 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost), 13 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: W L W W L.
- Sheffield Utd — 9 points from 7 played (2 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost), 8 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: D W L W L.
- Blackburn — 8 points from 7 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 10 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: L D L L W.
- Watford — 8 points from 7 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 7 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: D L L W L.
- Portsmouth — 7 points from 6 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 7 scored, 8 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: W L L W D.
- Wrexham — 7 points from 7 played (1 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost), 7 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: L W D D L.
- Bolton — 7 points from 7 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost), 7 scored, 12 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: L L L L W.
- Cardiff — 4 points from 7 played (0 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost), 7 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: D L L D L.
- Derby — 4 points from 7 played (1 won, 1 drawn, 5 lost), 6 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: L W L L L.
- Preston — 3 points from 7 played (1 won, 0 drawn, 6 lost), 6 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: L L W L L.
- Burnley — 3 points from 7 played (0 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost), 8 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: L D L D L.
What moved
Measured against 2026-09-15, the last update whose numbers changed —
not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried
forward rather than restamped. 23 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.
- Bristol City — chance of finishing top down 0.8, to 0.1%; bottom-three risk up 3.8, to 7.2%.
- Bolton — bottom-three risk down 3.3, to 37.8%.
- Portsmouth — chance of finishing top up 0.3, to 0.5%; bottom-three risk down 2.7, to 4.7%.
- Burnley — bottom-three risk up 2.6, to 25.7%.
- Cardiff — bottom-three risk down 2.5, to 42.9%.
Season projection
Every one of the 469 matches this phase has left,
played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each
side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a
title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those
depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Semi-finals, Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-09-15, the last update whose numbers changed.
- Southampton — projected to finish on 81 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 36.7% (up 1.9), finishes top four 77.4%, bottom three 0%.
- Middlesbrough — projected to finish on 77.5 points, from 14 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 18.9% (up 1.1), finishes top four 59.7%, bottom three 0%.
- Swansea — projected to finish on 74.9 points, from 14 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 11.5% (up 0.2), finishes top four 47.8%, bottom three 0.1%.
- West Ham — projected to finish on 72.7 points, from 14 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 7.7% (down 1.7), finishes top four 37.4%, bottom three 0.1%.
- Stoke City — projected to finish on 72.5 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 6.7% (down 0.2), finishes top four 35.1%, bottom three 0.3%.
- Wolves — projected to finish on 71.1 points, from 11 after 6 played. Finishes top of the regular season 5.4% (down 0.4), finishes top four 29.9%, bottom three 0.4%.
- West Brom — projected to finish on 71.1 points, from 14 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 5% (down 0.7), finishes top four 28.2%, bottom three 0.3%.
- Lincoln — projected to finish on 67.3 points, from 11 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.8% (up 0.9), finishes top four 15.4%, bottom three 1%.
- QPR — projected to finish on 67.2 points, from 12 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.7% (down 0.5), finishes top four 14.7%, bottom three 1.1%.
- Millwall — projected to finish on 65.5 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1% (up 0.1), finishes top four 11.1%, bottom three 2.1%.
- Norwich — projected to finish on 64.8 points, from 9 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.1% (up 0.1), finishes top four 9.6%, bottom three 2.4%.
- Charlton — projected to finish on 64.4 points, from 12 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.8%, finishes top four 8.5%, bottom three 2.7%.
- Birmingham — projected to finish on 63.9 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.7% (down 0.3), finishes top four 7.7%, bottom three 3.2%.
- Portsmouth — projected to finish on 62.2 points, from 7 after 6 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.5% (up 0.3), finishes top four 5.8%, bottom three 4.7%.
- Bristol City — projected to finish on 60.5 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1% (down 0.8), finishes top four 3.5%, bottom three 7.2%.
- Watford — projected to finish on 59.6 points, from 8 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1% (down 0.1), finishes top four 2.4%, bottom three 8.9%.
- Blackburn — projected to finish on 59 points, from 8 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top four 2.2%, bottom three 10%.
- Wrexham — projected to finish on 58.3 points, from 7 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1% (down 0.1), finishes top four 1.6%, bottom three 11.3%.
- Sheffield Utd — projected to finish on 57.2 points, from 9 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top four 1.2%, bottom three 14.2%.
- Burnley — projected to finish on 54 points, from 3 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.4%, bottom three 25.7%.
- Bolton — projected to finish on 51.4 points, from 7 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.2%, bottom three 37.8%.
- Cardiff — projected to finish on 50.1 points, from 4 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.2%, bottom three 42.9%.
- Derby — projected to finish on 48.8 points, from 4 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 50.5%.
- Preston — projected to finish on 44.3 points, from 3 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 73.1%.
Top scorers
- C. Larin (Southampton) — 7 goals.
- W. Lankshear (Middlesbrough) — 6 goals.
- M. Touré (Norwich) — 4 goals.
- J. Bowen (West Ham) — 4 goals, 3 assists.
- L. Dykes (Millwall) — 4 goals.
- F. Azaz (Southampton) — 3 goals, 4 assists.
- J. Morgan (West Brom) — 3 goals, 3 assists.
- Fer López (Wolves) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
- A. Idah (Swansea) — 3 goals, 1 assist.
- A. Guðjohnsen (Blackburn) — 3 goals, 1 assist.
- Amin Nabizada (Watford) — 3 goals.
- C. Lang (Preston) — 3 goals.
- E. Galbraith (Stoke City) — 3 goals.
- J. Piroe (West Ham) — 3 goals.
- T. Arconte (Millwall) — 3 goals.
- K. Mavropanos (West Ham) — 3 goals.
- Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur Campbell (Charlton) — 3 goals.
- R. Jiménez (Wolves) — 3 goals, 1 assist.
- E. Bocat (Stoke City) — 2 goals, 2 assists.
- B. Clark (Derby) — 2 goals, 2 assists.