League Tables

Championship

The table as it stands, and where the model expects it to finish. Projections are final positions, not qualification or relegation. How the model works.

  1. West Ham — 14 points from 7 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 20 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference +11. Form, oldest first: D W W W W.
  2. Swansea — 14 points from 7 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 11 scored, 5 conceded, goal difference +6. Form, oldest first: W W D L W.
  3. Middlesbrough — 14 points from 7 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 14 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference +4. Form, oldest first: W D W W D.
  4. West Brom — 14 points from 7 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 10 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: L D W W D.
  5. QPR — 12 points from 7 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 8 scored, 5 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: W W L D D.
  6. Charlton — 12 points from 7 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 6 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: W D L D D.
  7. Wolves — 11 points from 6 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 14 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference +4. Form, oldest first: W W L D W.
  8. Lincoln — 11 points from 7 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost), 6 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: W D D W W.
  9. Southampton — 10 points from 7 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 18 scored, 8 conceded, goal difference +10. Form, oldest first: W D D W W.
  10. Birmingham — 10 points from 7 played (2 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost), 10 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: W D D L W.
  11. Millwall — 10 points from 7 played (3 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 13 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: L L W L D.
  12. Stoke City — 10 points from 7 played (3 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 11 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: L W W D W.
  13. Bristol City — 10 points from 7 played (3 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 10 scored, 12 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: W W W L L.
  14. Norwich — 9 points from 7 played (3 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost), 13 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: W L W W L.
  15. Sheffield Utd — 9 points from 7 played (2 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost), 8 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: D W L W L.
  16. Blackburn — 8 points from 7 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 10 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: L D L L W.
  17. Watford — 8 points from 7 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 7 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: D L L W L.
  18. Portsmouth — 7 points from 6 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 7 scored, 8 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: W L L W D.
  19. Wrexham — 7 points from 7 played (1 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost), 7 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: L W D D L.
  20. Bolton — 7 points from 7 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost), 7 scored, 12 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: L L L L W.
  21. Cardiff — 4 points from 7 played (0 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost), 7 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: D L L D L.
  22. Derby — 4 points from 7 played (1 won, 1 drawn, 5 lost), 6 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: L W L L L.
  23. Preston — 3 points from 7 played (1 won, 0 drawn, 6 lost), 6 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: L L W L L.
  24. Burnley — 3 points from 7 played (0 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost), 8 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: L D L D L.

What moved

Measured against 2026-09-15, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 23 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

  • Bristol City — chance of finishing top down 0.8, to 0.1%; bottom-three risk up 3.8, to 7.2%.
  • Bolton — bottom-three risk down 3.3, to 37.8%.
  • Portsmouth — chance of finishing top up 0.3, to 0.5%; bottom-three risk down 2.7, to 4.7%.
  • Burnley — bottom-three risk up 2.6, to 25.7%.
  • Cardiff — bottom-three risk down 2.5, to 42.9%.

Season projection

Every one of the 469 matches this phase has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Semi-finals, Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-09-15, the last update whose numbers changed.

  1. Southampton — projected to finish on 81 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 36.7% (up 1.9), finishes top four 77.4%, bottom three 0%.
  2. Middlesbrough — projected to finish on 77.5 points, from 14 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 18.9% (up 1.1), finishes top four 59.7%, bottom three 0%.
  3. Swansea — projected to finish on 74.9 points, from 14 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 11.5% (up 0.2), finishes top four 47.8%, bottom three 0.1%.
  4. West Ham — projected to finish on 72.7 points, from 14 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 7.7% (down 1.7), finishes top four 37.4%, bottom three 0.1%.
  5. Stoke City — projected to finish on 72.5 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 6.7% (down 0.2), finishes top four 35.1%, bottom three 0.3%.
  6. Wolves — projected to finish on 71.1 points, from 11 after 6 played. Finishes top of the regular season 5.4% (down 0.4), finishes top four 29.9%, bottom three 0.4%.
  7. West Brom — projected to finish on 71.1 points, from 14 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 5% (down 0.7), finishes top four 28.2%, bottom three 0.3%.
  8. Lincoln — projected to finish on 67.3 points, from 11 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.8% (up 0.9), finishes top four 15.4%, bottom three 1%.
  9. QPR — projected to finish on 67.2 points, from 12 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.7% (down 0.5), finishes top four 14.7%, bottom three 1.1%.
  10. Millwall — projected to finish on 65.5 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1% (up 0.1), finishes top four 11.1%, bottom three 2.1%.
  11. Norwich — projected to finish on 64.8 points, from 9 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.1% (up 0.1), finishes top four 9.6%, bottom three 2.4%.
  12. Charlton — projected to finish on 64.4 points, from 12 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.8%, finishes top four 8.5%, bottom three 2.7%.
  13. Birmingham — projected to finish on 63.9 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.7% (down 0.3), finishes top four 7.7%, bottom three 3.2%.
  14. Portsmouth — projected to finish on 62.2 points, from 7 after 6 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.5% (up 0.3), finishes top four 5.8%, bottom three 4.7%.
  15. Bristol City — projected to finish on 60.5 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1% (down 0.8), finishes top four 3.5%, bottom three 7.2%.
  16. Watford — projected to finish on 59.6 points, from 8 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1% (down 0.1), finishes top four 2.4%, bottom three 8.9%.
  17. Blackburn — projected to finish on 59 points, from 8 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top four 2.2%, bottom three 10%.
  18. Wrexham — projected to finish on 58.3 points, from 7 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1% (down 0.1), finishes top four 1.6%, bottom three 11.3%.
  19. Sheffield Utd — projected to finish on 57.2 points, from 9 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top four 1.2%, bottom three 14.2%.
  20. Burnley — projected to finish on 54 points, from 3 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.4%, bottom three 25.7%.
  21. Bolton — projected to finish on 51.4 points, from 7 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.2%, bottom three 37.8%.
  22. Cardiff — projected to finish on 50.1 points, from 4 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.2%, bottom three 42.9%.
  23. Derby — projected to finish on 48.8 points, from 4 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 50.5%.
  24. Preston — projected to finish on 44.3 points, from 3 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 73.1%.

Top scorers

  1. C. Larin (Southampton) — 7 goals.
  2. W. Lankshear (Middlesbrough) — 6 goals.
  3. M. Touré (Norwich) — 4 goals.
  4. J. Bowen (West Ham) — 4 goals, 3 assists.
  5. L. Dykes (Millwall) — 4 goals.
  6. F. Azaz (Southampton) — 3 goals, 4 assists.
  7. J. Morgan (West Brom) — 3 goals, 3 assists.
  8. Fer López (Wolves) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
  9. A. Idah (Swansea) — 3 goals, 1 assist.
  10. A. Guðjohnsen (Blackburn) — 3 goals, 1 assist.
  11. Amin Nabizada (Watford) — 3 goals.
  12. C. Lang (Preston) — 3 goals.
  13. E. Galbraith (Stoke City) — 3 goals.
  14. J. Piroe (West Ham) — 3 goals.
  15. T. Arconte (Millwall) — 3 goals.
  16. K. Mavropanos (West Ham) — 3 goals.
  17. Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur Campbell (Charlton) — 3 goals.
  18. R. Jiménez (Wolves) — 3 goals, 1 assist.
  19. E. Bocat (Stoke City) — 2 goals, 2 assists.
  20. B. Clark (Derby) — 2 goals, 2 assists.

Other competitions

All 51 competitions we cover.