Serie A (Italy)

1. Lazio — 29 points from 11 played (9 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost), 25 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference +16. Form, oldest first: W W W W D.
2. Inter — 28 points from 11 played (9 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost), 28 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference +15. Form, oldest first: W W W L W.
3. AS Roma — 27 points from 11 played (8 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost), 31 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference +21. Form, oldest first: W D W W W.
4. AC Milan — 24 points from 11 played (7 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 23 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference +10. Form, oldest first: W W L W W.
5. Como — 23 points from 11 played (7 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost), 18 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference +8. Form, oldest first: W W W W L.
6. Frosinone — 20 points from 11 played (6 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 24 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference +9. Form, oldest first: W D W W L.
7. Juventus — 18 points from 11 played (5 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost), 15 scored, 12 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: L W L W D.
8. Bologna — 17 points from 11 played (5 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost), 16 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: L W W W W.
9. Cagliari — 16 points from 11 played (5 won, 1 drawn, 5 lost), 10 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: L L L L W.
10. Napoli — 15 points from 11 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost), 18 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference +4. Form, oldest first: L D W L D.
11. Torino — 14 points from 11 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost), 15 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: W W L L D.
12. Atalanta — 14 points from 11 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost), 17 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: L D D L W.
13. Genoa — 13 points from 11 played (4 won, 1 drawn, 6 lost), 11 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: L W W W L.
14. Lecce — 10 points from 11 played (3 won, 1 drawn, 7 lost), 12 scored, 22 conceded, goal difference -10. Form, oldest first: W L L L D.
15. Fiorentina — 9 points from 11 played (2 won, 3 drawn, 6 lost), 17 scored, 25 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: L L D W D.
16. Parma — 8 points from 11 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 7 lost), 9 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: L L D W L.
17. Sassuolo — 8 points from 11 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 7 lost), 16 scored, 29 conceded, goal difference -13. Form, oldest first: L L L L L.
18. Monza — 7 points from 11 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 8 lost), 17 scored, 25 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: W L L L L.
19. Venezia — 6 points from 11 played (2 won, 0 drawn, 9 lost), 8 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference -13. Form, oldest first: W L L L W.
20. Udinese — 5 points from 11 played (1 won, 2 drawn, 8 lost), 12 scored, 25 conceded, goal difference -13. Form, oldest first: L L D L L.

What moved

Measured against 2026-11-14, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped.

• Lazio — title chance down 0.4, to 7%.
• AS Roma — title chance up 0.2, to 42.6%.
• Inter — title chance up 0.2, to 44.5%.
• Atalanta — bottom-three risk up 0.1, to 0.8%.
• Cagliari — bottom-three risk up 0.1, to 4.4%.

Season projection

Every one of the 270 matches this competition has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. Movement is measured against 2026-11-14, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Inter — projected to finish on 84.9 points, from 28 after 11 played. Wins it 44.5% (up 0.2), finishes top four 95.8%, bottom three 0%.
2. AS Roma — projected to finish on 84.2 points, from 27 after 11 played. Wins it 42.6% (up 0.2), finishes top four 94.6%, bottom three 0%.
3. Lazio — projected to finish on 73 points, from 29 after 11 played. Wins it 7% (down 0.4), finishes top four 60.6%, bottom three 0%.
4. Como — projected to finish on 70.8 points, from 23 after 11 played. Wins it 2.4%, finishes top four 51.6%, bottom three 0%.
5. AC Milan — projected to finish on 69.3 points, from 24 after 11 played. Wins it 2.4%, finishes top four 44%, bottom three 0%.
6. Napoli — projected to finish on 63 points, from 15 after 11 played. Wins it 0.3%, finishes top four 17.6%, bottom three 0.1%.
7. Juventus — projected to finish on 62.8 points, from 18 after 11 played. Wins it 0.6%, finishes top four 16.2%, bottom three 0%.
8. Frosinone — projected to finish on 60.5 points, from 20 after 11 played. Wins it 0.3%, finishes top four 13.4%, bottom three 0%.
9. Bologna — projected to finish on 53.6 points, from 17 after 11 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 2.6%, bottom three 0.5%.
10. Atalanta — projected to finish on 52.7 points, from 14 after 11 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 2.7%, bottom three 0.8%.
11. Fiorentina — projected to finish on 46.6 points, from 9 after 11 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.5%, bottom three 6%.
12. Cagliari — projected to finish on 45.4 points, from 16 after 11 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.2%, bottom three 4.4%.
13. Genoa — projected to finish on 45.2 points, from 13 after 11 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.2%, bottom three 6%.
14. Torino — projected to finish on 44.6 points, from 14 after 11 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.2%, bottom three 7.3%.
15. Sassuolo — projected to finish on 38 points, from 8 after 11 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 26%.
16. Parma — projected to finish on 34.7 points, from 8 after 11 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 37.7%.
17. Monza — projected to finish on 33.5 points, from 7 after 11 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 44.8%.
18. Lecce — projected to finish on 33.4 points, from 10 after 11 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 46.4%.
19. Udinese — projected to finish on 31.5 points, from 5 after 11 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 55.6%.
20. Venezia — projected to finish on 29.9 points, from 6 after 11 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 64.4%.

Top scorers

1. Gustavo Varela (Monza) — 9 goals, 1 assist.
2. D. Malen (AS Roma) — 8 goals, 2 assists.
3. A. Raimondo (Frosinone) — 8 goals.
4. N. Krstović (Atalanta) — 7 goals, 2 assists.
5. M. Thuram (Inter) — 6 goals, 2 assists.
6. A. Rabiot (AC Milan) — 5 goals, 4 assists.
7. T. Douvikas (Como) — 5 goals.
8. A. Cissè (AC Milan) — 5 goals.
9. G. Calò (Frosinone) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
10. D. Maldini (Cagliari) — 5 goals.
11. T. Noslin (Lazio) — 4 goals, 4 assists.
12. Diego Moreira (AC Milan) — 4 goals, 3 assists.
13. G. Isaksen (Lazio) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
14. M. Osmajić (Genoa) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
15. C. Pulišić (AC Milan) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
16. Mateo Pellegrino (Fiorentina) — 4 goals.
17. D. Frattesi (Lazio) — 4 goals.
18. Franco Mastantuono (Fiorentina) — 4 goals.
19. Rodrigo Mora (AS Roma) — 4 goals.
20. C. Adams (Torino) — 4 goals.