Sassuolo vs Fiorentina Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Sassuolo 2-4 Fiorentina.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Sassuolo, 26% draw, 39% Fiorentina — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Fiorentina at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 80S. TuratiG
- 6S. WalukiewiczD
- 21J. IdzesD
- 5Fali CandéD
- 3J. DoigD
- 17Vasilije AdžićM
- 18N. MatićM
- 55I. SulemanaM
- 10D. BerardiF
- 94S. EspositoF
- 45A. LaurientéF
- 20I. Van der BremptD
- 9K. BowieF
- 12G. SatalinoG
- 50D. BakolaM
- 15D. Ćaleta-CarD
- 46S. CinquegranoM
- 25B. DomínguezF
- 8A. GhionM
- 14G. KullaF
- 43David de GeaG
- 20Álex JiménezD
- 3R. DrăgușinD
- 33VieryD
- 17João MárioD
- 27C. NdourM
- 44N. FagioliM
- 4M. BrescianiniM
- 30Franco MastantuonoF
- 32Mateo PellegrinoF
- 25A. NjieF
- 21ValdeD
- 28PoteM
- 19L. LezzeriniG
- 42C. Inao OulaïM
- 29W. GnontoF
- 2DodôD
- 70F. CrociF
- 53O. ChristensenG
- 23BetoF
Form going into Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
Sassuolo
Serie A
- L2-6Lazio27 October 2026
- L0-2away to Como24 October 2026
- L2-4away to Frosinone16 October 2026
Fiorentina
Serie A
- D2-2Atalanta29 October 2026
- L1-2away to Inter25 October 2026
- L1-3Como18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Sassuolo | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 8 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fiorentina vs Sassuolo
Fiorentina and Sassuolo have met 7 times in the records we hold, Fiorentina has won 4 of them to Sassuolo's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Fiorentina won the last one 4–2 on 2 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 9 |
| Sassuolo | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 24 goals, an average of 3.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 2 Nov 2026
Serie ASassuolo 2–4 Fiorentina - 26 Apr 2026
Serie AFiorentina 0–0 Sassuolo - 6 Dec 2025
Serie ASassuolo 3–1 Fiorentina - 28 Apr 2024
Serie AFiorentina 5–1 Sassuolo - 6 Jan 2024
Serie ASassuolo 1–0 Fiorentina - 2 Jun 2023
Serie ASassuolo 1–3 Fiorentina - 7 Jan 2023
Serie AFiorentina 2–1 Sassuolo
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Fiorentina's attack rates 17% above Sassuolo's, and Fiorentina concede 17% fewer than Sassuolo. That gives Fiorentina the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 1.17 | 1.05 |
| Sassuolo | 1.00 | 1.26 |
Leading scorers: Sassuolo and Fiorentina
Sassuolo
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Fiorentina
GoalsAssists
- Mateo Pellegrino40
- Franco Mastantuono40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fiorentina won 4–2 at Sassuolo. The model had made a win for Fiorentina its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Armand Lauriente 25' for Sassuolo, Mateo Pellegrino 45+2' for Fiorentina, Alieu Njie 50' for Fiorentina, Armand Lauriente 65' for Sassuolo, Franco Mastantuono 79' for Fiorentina, Víctor Valdepeñas Talavera 90+3' for Fiorentina. On expected goals it finished 0.90–2.55.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sassuolo a 11.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.0% after a win, 12.9% after a draw, 15.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.2%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.
For Fiorentina the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 11.1% going in: 7.3% after a win, 11.2% after a draw, 14.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.3%, 3.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sassuolo v Fiorentina has moved
First published on 19 Oct at 39% / 26% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 35% / 26% / 39%: the biggest move is Sassuolo's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Sassuolo win35%▼ −4
- Draw26%=
- Fiorentina win39%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.