Lazio vs Cagliari Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Lazio 2-1 Cagliari.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Lazio, 27% draw, 19% Cagliari — fair odds of 1.85, 3.70 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Lazio at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lazio vs Cagliari
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 35C. MandasG
- 15R. Floriani MussoliniD
- 37J. ŠutaloD
- 25O. ProvstgaardD
- 17Nuno TavaresD
- 16D. FrattesiM
- 21R. BelahyaneM
- 24K. TaylorM
- 11G. IsaksenF
- 14T. NoslinF
- 10M. ZaccagniF
- 40E. MottaG
- 2Diogo LeiteD
- 29M. LazzariM
- 76Filipe BordonD
- 7F. Dele-BashiruM
- 71V. FarcomeniM
- 23PedrazaD
- 3L. PellegriniD
- 9A. PinamontiF
- 1E. CaprileG
- 2Zé PedroD
- 14A. DeiolaD
- 15J. RodríguezD
- 33A. ObertD
- 8M. AdopoM
- 4A. RomanoM
- 39A. FaderaM
- 70D. MaldiniM
- 10J. FazziniM
- 18M'Bala NzolaF
- 9Kevin CarlosF
- 22R. KoflerD
- 27J. LitetaM
- 79Y. MassolinM
- 31P. MendyF
- 26Y. MinaD
- 23B. RadunovićG
- 12A. SherriG
- 28Y. SugawaraD
Form going into Lazio vs Cagliari
Lazio
Serie A
- W6-2away to Sassuolo27 October 2026
- W2-1Parma24 October 2026
- W3-0away to Juventus18 October 2026
Cagliari
Serie A
- L2-4away to AS Roma27 October 2026
- L0-2Bologna24 October 2026
- L0-4away to Monza19 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 29 |
| 9 | Cagliari | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cagliari vs Lazio
Cagliari and Lazio have met 7 times in the records we hold, Lazio has won 6 of them to Cagliari's 0, with 1 drawn.
The record
Lazio won the last one 2–1 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12 |
| Lazio | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 4 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
Serie ALazio 2–1 Cagliari - 21 Feb 2026
Serie ACagliari 0–0 Lazio - 3 Nov 2025
Serie ALazio 2–0 Cagliari - 3 Feb 2025
Serie ACagliari 1–2 Lazio - 4 Nov 2024
Serie ALazio 2–1 Cagliari - 10 Feb 2024
Serie ACagliari 1–3 Lazio - 2 Dec 2023
Serie ALazio 1–0 Cagliari
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Lazio's attack rates 58% above Cagliari's, and Lazio concede 16% fewer than Cagliari. That gives Lazio the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Lazio and Cagliari
Lazio
GoalsAssists
- T. Noslin44
- G. Isaksen41
- D. Frattesi40
Cagliari
GoalsAssists
- D. Maldini50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lazio beat Cagliari 2–1. The model had made a win for Lazio its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: M'Bala Nzola 20' for Cagliari, Gustav Isaksen 36' for Lazio, Andrea Pinamonti 83' for Lazio. Sent off: Adam Obert (Cagliari) 90+1'. On expected goals it finished 1.03–1.10.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lazio a 51.8% chance to finish in the top four: 55.6% after a win, 47.6% after a draw, 43.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.6%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.
For Cagliari the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 8.0% going in: 4.6% after a win, 7.4% after a draw, 9.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.0%, 1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Lazio v Cagliari has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 40% / 32% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 54% / 27% / 19%: the biggest move is Lazio's chance of winning, up 14 points.
- Lazio win54%▲ +14
- Draw27%▼ −5
- Cagliari win19%▼ −9
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.