2 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Atalanta vs Parma Serie A prediction & result

New Balance Arena, Bergamo
Referee: Valerio Crezzini
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Atalanta 0-3 Parma.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Atalanta, 27% draw, 17% Parma — fair odds of 1.79, 3.70 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Atalanta at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

41'
⚽Giovanni Fabbianassist: Vincent Sierro
45'
🔁Dominik Drobnicout: Abdoulaye Niakhate Ndiaye
47'
⚽Davide Zappacosta (OG)
58'
⚽Simone Lontaniassist: Giovanni Fabbian
🔁Éderson José dos Santosout: Elif Elmas
62'
🔁Jonathan Roweout: Kamal Deen Sulemana
67'
67'
🔁Simone Lontaniout: Christian Ordóñez
74'
🔁El Bilal Toureout: Nesta Elphege
74'
🔁Giovanni Fabbianout: Matija Frigan
🔁Nicola Zalewskiout: Lazar Samardzic
76'
🔁Davide Zappacostaout: Javison Idele
76'
89'
🔁Vincent Sierroout: Hans Nicolussi Caviglia

Match stats — Atalanta vs Parma

70%Possession30%
20Shots6
6On target3
8Corners5
2.89xG0.42

Goals against chances

Atalanta0 from 2.89 xGless than the chances were worth
Parma3 from 0.42 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atalanta 4-2-3-1
  • 29M. CarnesecchiG
  • 77D. ZappacostaD
  • 42G. ScalviniD
  • 40R. ObrićD
  • 47L. BernasconiD
  • 13ÉdersonM
  • 8Mario PasalicM
  • 59N. ZalewskiM
  • 17C. De KetelaereM
  • 11J. RoweM
  • 90N. KrstovićF
Substitutes
  • 99E. ElmasM
  • 41J. IdeleM
  • 53M. PlaiaD
  • 10L. SamardžićM
  • 51M. SonzogniG
  • 57M. SportielloG
  • 7K. SulemanaF
  • 46Sergej LevakM
Coach: M. Sarri
Parma 3-5-2
  • 30G. DaffaraG
  • 15E. Del PratoD
  • 37M. TroiloD
  • 72D. DrobnicD
  • 27S. BritschgiM
  • 80G. FabbianM
  • 4V. SierroM
  • 16M. KeitaM
  • 14E. ValeriM
  • 19E. TouréF
  • 76S. LontaniF
Substitutes
  • 8B. CremaschiM
  • 9D. RomeroF
  • 32C. OrdoñezM
  • 41H. NicolussiM
  • 3A. N'DiayeD
  • 47Abdou KonateM
  • 22S. GhidottiG
  • 20M. FriganF
  • 23N. ElphegeF
Coach: A. Gilardino

Form going into Atalanta vs Parma

Atalanta

Serie A

  • D2-2away to Fiorentina29 October 2026
  • D4-4Frosinone25 October 2026
  • L2-3away to AC Milan18 October 2026

Parma

Serie A

  • D0-0Udinese28 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Lazio24 October 2026
  • L0-3Torino19 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Atalanta114251720-314
16Parma11227917-88

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atalanta vs Parma

Atalanta and Parma have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each, with 1 drawn.

The record

Parma won the last one 3–0 on 2 Nov 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Atalanta3131614
Parma3131416

Between them these 7 meetings produced 30 goals, an average of 4.29 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 2 Nov 2026
    Serie A    Atalanta 0–3 Parma
  • 25 Jan 2026
    Serie A    Atalanta 4–0 Parma
  • 30 Aug 2025
    Serie A    Parma 1–1 Atalanta
  • 25 May 2025
    Serie A    Atalanta 2–3 Parma
  • 23 Nov 2024
    Serie A    Parma 1–3 Atalanta
  • 4 Aug 2024
    Friendlies Clubs    Parma 4–1 Atalanta
  • 9 May 2021
    Serie A    Parma 2–5 Atalanta

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Atalanta's attack rates 71% above Parma's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Atalanta1.160.93
Parma0.680.93

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Atalanta and Parma

Atalanta

GoalsAssists

  • N. Krstović72

Parma

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Parma won 3–0 at Atalanta. The model had leaned towards a win for Atalanta at 56% and given a win for Parma 17%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: Giovanni Fabbian 41' for Parma, Davide Zappacosta (own goal) 47' for Parma, Simone Lontani 58' for Parma. On expected goals it finished 2.89–0.42.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Parma a 61.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 50.9% after a win, 59.4% after a draw, 65.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.9%, 10.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Atalanta v Parma has moved

First published on 19 Oct at 54% / 28% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 56% / 27% / 17%: the biggest move is Atalanta's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Atalanta win56%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Parma win17%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.