8 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Guimaraes vs Arouca Primeira Liga prediction & result

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimaraes
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Guimaraes 0-1 Arouca.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Guimaraes, 25% draw, 33% Arouca — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Guimaraes at 42% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Guimaraes0%Draw5%Arouca95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

53'
⚽I. Barberoassist: N. Djouahra
64'
Hyun-ju Lee
65'
🔁M. Floresout: O. Lebedenko
65'
🔁I. Barberoout: D. Nandin
Oumar Camara
69'
🔁Magaout: T. Strata
69'
🔁O. Camaraout: T. Arcanjo
70'
70'
🔁E. van Eeout: Pedro Santos
70'
🔁H. Leeout: P. Gozalbez
73'
🔁J. Sanchezout: D. Monteiro
🔁G. Nogueiraout: M. Mitrovic
78'
🔁A. Ndoyeout: M. Nogueira
78'
Matija Mitrović
90+6'
90+4'
Ignacio de Arruabarrena
90+3'
Diogo Monteiro
90+2'
Orest Lebedenko
90'
Diogo Monteiro
90+3'
Diogo Monteiro
🔁Gustavoout: L. Doucet
90+6'

Match stats — Guimaraes vs Arouca

58%Possession42%
24Shots4
3On target2
5Corners2
2.22xG0.49

Goals against chances

Guimaraes0 from 2.22 xGless than the chances were worth
Arouca1 from 0.49 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Guimaraes 4-2-3-1
  • 48O. ZychG
  • 2MagaD
  • 4O. Rivas ViondiD
  • 28Thiago BalieiroD
  • 13J. I. MendesD
  • 16BeniM
  • 8G. NogueiraM
  • 11GustavoM
  • 20SamuM
  • 7O. CamaraM
  • 24A. NdoyeF
Substitutes
  • 22J. CastilloG
  • 98Lucas Furtado
  • 18T. ArcanjoM
  • 44L. DoucetM
  • 56S. VerdiM
  • 82F. DiasD
  • 5A. SidibeD
  • 6M. MitrovicM
  • 23T. StrataD
Coach: Tiago Margarido
Arouca 4-2-3-1
  • 12I. De ArruabarrenaG
  • 28Tiago EsgaioD
  • 15J. SanchezD
  • 3J. FontanD
  • 21M. FloresD
  • 6E. van EeM
  • 8T. FukuiM
  • 19A. TrezzaM
  • 14H. LeeM
  • 7N. DjouahraM
  • 17I. BarberoF
Substitutes
  • 1J. VinarcikG
  • 71M. DuarteG
  • 5B. PopovicD
  • 89Pedro SantosM
  • 9F. MayuluF
  • 24B. MansillaF
  • 37M. ClimentD
  • 18O. LebedenkoD
  • 10P. GozalbezM
Coach: Vasco Seabra

Head-to-head: Guimaraes vs Arouca

  • 8 August 2026Guimaraes 0–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
  • 7 February 2026Arouca 3–2 GuimaraesPrimeira Liga
  • 30 August 2025Guimaraes 1–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
  • 18 January 2025Guimaraes 2–2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
  • 12 August 2024Arouca 0–1 GuimaraesPrimeira Liga
  • 18 May 2024Arouca 1–3 GuimaraesPrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Guimaraes and Arouca

Guimaraes

No leading scorers listed yet.

Arouca

  • Barbero4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.