Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Valerenga 1-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Before kick-off the model made it 20% Valerenga, 21% draw, 59% Bodo/Glimt — fair odds of 5.00, 4.76 and 1.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bodo/Glimt at 59% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Oscar HedvallG
- 55Sebastian JarlD
- 4Aaron Kiil OlsenD
- 37Ivan NäsbergD
- 2Kolbeinn FinnssonD
- 28Magnus WestergaardM
- 29Ambina Fidèle BriceM
- 10Carl LangeM
- 77Lucas HarenM
- 7Mohamed OfkirF
- 17Mathias GrundetjernF
- 24Petter StrandM
- 9Gabriel RajkovicF
- 3Hakon SjatilD
- 90Ole Christian SaeterF
- 15Odin Thiago HolmM
- 13Sander Åke Andreas LønningG
- 5Kevin TshiembeD
- 6Vegar Eggen HedenstadD
- 19Promise MeligaF
- 12Nikita HaikinG
- 20Fredrik SjøvoldD
- 4Odin Luras BjørtuftD
- 5Haitam AleesamiD
- 25Isak Dybvik MäättäD
- 7Patrick BergM
- 8Sondre AuklendM
- 19Sondre FetM
- 17Ola BrynhildsenM
- 11Ole Didrik BlombergF
- 21Andreas HelmersenF
- 16Joshua KitolanoM
- 14Ulrik SaltnesM
- 24Daniel BassiF
- 15Fredrik André BjørkanD
- 1Julian LundG
- 6Jostein GundersenD
- 2Villads NielsenD
- 23Magnus RiisnæsM
- 77Mikkel Bro HansenF
Form going into Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt
Valerenga
- L0-3Ham-Kam31 July 2026
- W3-2away to Brann26 July 2026
Bodo/Glimt
- W4-0Lillestrom31 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Valerenga | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 22 |
| 1 | Bodo/Glimt | 20 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 52 | 17 | +35 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt
- 8 August 2026Valerenga 1–2 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
- 1 November 2025Valerenga 3–1 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
- 26 July 2025Bodo/Glimt 7–2 ValerengaEliteserien
- 28 September 2023Valerenga 2–4 Bodo/GlimtNM Cupen
- 24 September 2023Bodo/Glimt 4–2 ValerengaEliteserien
- 4 June 2023Valerenga 1–3 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
Leading scorers: Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt
Valerenga
- L. Haren8 goals1 assists
- C. Lange6 goals1 assists
Bodo/Glimt
- A. Helmersen10 goals1 assists
- K. Høgh7 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.