8 August 2026, 14:30 UTC

Maritimo vs Casa Pia Primeira Liga prediction & result

Funchal
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Maritimo 1-0 Casa Pia.

Before kick-off the model made it 19% Maritimo, 24% draw, 57% Casa Pia — fair odds of 5.26, 4.17 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Casa Pia at 57% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Maritimo95%Draw5%Casa Pia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45+2'
David Sousa
⚽Raphael Guzzoassist: M. Tejon
61'
66'
🔁A. Conteout: P. Rosas
66'
🔁K. Osundinaout: K. Prieto
78'
🔁Gabiout: A. Jatta
80'
🔁S. Perezout: S. Clua
81'
🔁J. Goulartout: Kaly
🔁S. Bouzaidiout: S. Bamba
82'
86'
Alassana Jatta
🔁M. Tejonout: T. Tavares
87'
🔁A. Butzkeout: M. Boakye
87'
Tomás Tavares
90+6'
Raphael Guzzo
90+1'
🔁V. Danilovicout: J. Santiago Perez
90+1'
🔁Raphael Guzzoout: G. Szalai
90+1'

Match stats — Maritimo vs Casa Pia

39%Possession61%
16Shots9
4On target4
2Corners6
1.25xG0.61

Goals against chances

Maritimo1 from 1.25 xGabout what the chances were worth
Casa Pia0 from 0.61 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Maritimo 4-3-3
  • 13Alfonso PastorG
  • 2Igor JuliãoD
  • 4Rafael FernandesD
  • 44Romain CorreiaD
  • 23Paulo HenriqueD
  • 14Raphael GuzzoM
  • 6Rodrigo AndradeM
  • 18Vladan DanilovićM
  • 11Simo BouzaidiF
  • 17Adrián ButzkeF
  • 10Martín TejónF
Substitutes
  • 27Samuel BambaF
  • 15Tomás TavaresD
  • 90Maurice BoakyeF
  • 22Gábor SzalaiD
  • 25Yellu SantiagoM
  • 77Pedro TeixeiraG
  • 1Gonçalo TabuaçoG
  • 68Nelio BatistaM
  • 16Francisco SilvaM
Coach: Mitchell van der Gaag
Casa Pia 4-3-3
  • 31André GomesG
  • 18André GeraldesD
  • 4João GoulartD
  • 43David SousaD
  • 5Abdu ContéD
  • 24Sebastián PérezM
  • 80Lawrence OforiM
  • 8Gabi PereiraM
  • 13Oluwakorede OsundinaF
  • 9Henrique AraújoF
  • 10RochinhaF
Substitutes
  • 75Pedro RosasD
  • 19Kevin PrietoF
  • 20Alassana JattaF
  • 16Selvi ClúaM
  • 3Domingos Jose Gabriel BandeiraD
  • 95Ivan MandićG
  • 22Daniel AzevedoG
  • 27Kaique RochaD
  • 59Abdu DafeM
Coach: Filipe Coelho

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Maritimo6213711-47
18Casa Pia6015115-141

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Maritimo vs Casa Pia

  • 8 August 2026Maritimo 1–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
  • 19 March 2023Casa Pia 2–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
  • 3 October 2022Maritimo 1–2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
  • 23 July 2022Casa Pia 0–0 MaritimoFriendlies Clubs
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.