8 November 2026, 14:30 UTC

1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga prediction & result

RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne
Referee: Felix Zwayer
Full time1 – 2

Final score: 1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% 1. FC Köln, 23% draw, 52% Bayer Leverkusen — fair odds of 4.00, 4.35 and 1.92.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bayer Leverkusen at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Köln0%Draw1%Bayer Leverkusen99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽Aleix García
34'
Facundo Medina
Tom Krauß
40'
Mikey Moore
46'
Linton Maina
52'
52'
Afonso Moreira
53'
Edmond Tapsoba
Joel Schmied
57'
Borna Sosa
70'
🔁Tom Kraußout: Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
74'
🔁Marius Bülterout: Malek El Mala
75'
🔁Linton Mainaout: Reigan Heskey
75'
76'
🔁Malik Tillmanout: Jonas Hofmann
🔁Mikey Mooreout: Luca Waldschmidt
84'
🔁Sebastian Soraas Sebulonsenout: Alessio Castro-Montes
84'
85'
⚽Patrik Schickassist: Ibrahim Maza
88'
🔁Facundo Medinaout: Loïc Badé
88'
🔁Ibrahim Mazaout: Robert Andrich
⚽Said El Malaassist: Malek El Mala
90+2'
90+5'
Aleix García
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
90+5'
90+6'
Jonas Hofmann

Match stats — 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen

38%Possession62%
12Shots14
6On target8
2Corners6
1.59xG1.75

Goals against chances

1. FC Köln1 from 1.59 xGless than the chances were worth
Bayer Leverkusen2 from 1.75 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1. FC Köln 3-5-2
  • 1M. SchwäbeG
  • 2J. SchmiedD
  • 22Jahmai Simpson-PuseyD
  • 5T. KraußD
  • 28S. SebulonsenM
  • 37L. MainaM
  • 23Paul Michael Junior Okon-EngstlerM
  • 47M. MooreM
  • 3B. SosaM
  • 30M. BülterF
  • 10S. El MalaF
Substitutes
  • 17A. Castro-MontesM
  • 11Reigan HeskeyF
  • 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
  • 24L. LochoshviliD
  • 14G. MensahD
  • 29J. ThielmannM
  • 7L. WaldschmidtF
  • 20R. ZielerG
  • 19M. El MalaF
Coach: René Wagner
Bayer Leverkusen 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. FlekkenG
  • 4J. QuansahD
  • 12E. TapsobaD
  • 2F. MedinaD
  • 3Miguel GutiérrezD
  • 6E. FernándezM
  • 24Aleix GarcíaM
  • 9Afonso MoreiraM
  • 10M. TillmanM
  • 30I. MazaM
  • 14P. SchickF
Substitutes
  • 7J. HofmannM
  • 15T. OermannD
  • 17Lucas VázquezD
  • 42M. CulbreathM
  • 22V. BonifaceF
  • 28J. BlaswichG
  • 29E. Ben SeghirF
  • 5L. BadéD
  • 8R. AndrichM
Coach: Carles Martínez

Form going into 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen

1. FC Köln

Bundesliga

  • D1-1away to Union Berlin1 November 2026
  • D0-0FC Schalke 0424 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Eintracht Frankfurt16 October 2026
  • W2-1Borussia Mönchengladbach11 October 2026

Bayer Leverkusen

Bundesliga

  • L2-4VfB Stuttgart31 October 2026
  • L0-3away to 1899 Hoffenheim25 October 2026
  • W2-1SC Freiburg18 October 2026
  • W4-3away to FSV Mainz 0510 October 2026

What these results say

  • 1. FC Köln failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 1. FC Köln conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for 1. FC Köln had two goals or fewer.
  • Bayer Leverkusen conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Bayer Leverkusen had three goals or more.
  • Bayer Leverkusen scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
151. FC Köln92341014-49
5Bayer Leverkusen95132017+316

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen

  • 25 April 20261. FC Köln 1–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
  • 13 December 2025Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 1. FC KölnBundesliga
  • 5 February 2025Bayer Leverkusen 3–2 1. FC KölnDFB Pokal
  • 3 March 20241. FC Köln 0–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
  • 8 October 2023Bayer Leverkusen 3–0 1. FC KölnBundesliga
  • 5 May 2023Bayer Leverkusen 1–2 1. FC KölnBundesliga

The full 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen record →

Leading scorers: 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen

1. FC Köln

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Bayer Leverkusen

GoalsAssists

  • P. Schick82
  • I. Maza33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bayer Leverkusen won 2–1 at 1. FC Köln. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Bayer Leverkusen at 52%. The goals: Aleix García 7' for Bayer Leverkusen, Patrik Schick 85' for Bayer Leverkusen, Said El Mala 90+2' for 1. FC Köln. On expected goals it finished 1.59–1.75.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave 1. FC Köln a 23.4% chance to finish in the bottom two: 15.7% after a win, 23.1% after a draw, 26.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.3%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.

For Bayer Leverkusen the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 34.5% going in: 38.2% after a win, 30.7% after a draw, 28.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.2%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on 1. FC Köln v Bayer Leverkusen has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 20% / 22% / 58% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 25% / 23% / 52%: the biggest move is Bayer Leverkusen's chance of winning, down 6 points.

  1. 1. FC Köln win25%▲ +5
  2. Draw23%▲ +1
  3. Bayer Leverkusen win52%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.