8 November 2026, 20:30 UTC

Estrela vs Benfica Primeira Liga prediction & result

Amadora
Referee: Antonio Nobre
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Estrela 2-3 Benfica.

Before kick-off the model made it 13% Estrela, 18% draw, 69% Benfica — fair odds of 7.69, 5.56 and 1.45.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Benfica at 69%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
⚽Gianluca Prestianniassist: Claudio Echeverri
⚽Lovro Zvonarekassist: Rafa Soares
48'
50'
Marco Alexandre Saraiva da Silva
Lovro Zvonarek
51'
Pedro Miguel Marques da Costa Filipe
53'
65'
🔁Tomás Araújoout: Alessandro Circati
65'
🔁Claudio Echeverriout: Dodi Lukebakio
🔁Ianis Stoicaout: Alisson Souza
66'
🔁Santiago Serraout: Joan Jordan
67'
68'
⚽Bernardo Schappo (OG)
⚽Leandro Antonettiassist: Joan Jordan
76'
77'
🔁Rafa Silvaout: Andreas Schjelderup
84'
🔁Alexander Bahout: Jhon Durán
84'
🔁Samuel Dahlout: Daniel Banjaqui
🔁Kevin Hoog Janssonout: Tom Moustier
85'
🔁Bernardo Schappoout: Atanas Chernev
85'
🔁Leandro Antonettiout: Jefferson Encada
87'
Alisson Souza
89'
90+4'
⚽Vangelis Pavlidisassist: Andreas Schjelderup

Match stats — Estrela vs Benfica

38%Possession62%
7Shots15
2On target5
1Corners10
1.35xG1.09

Goals against chances

Estrela2 from 1.35 xGmore than the chances were worth
Benfica3 from 1.09 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Estrela 4-2-3-1
  • 24Léo LinckG
  • 21M. ScholzeD
  • 30Patrick LuanD
  • 4Bernardo SchappoD
  • 55Rafa SoaresD
  • 6K. Höög JanssonM
  • 78Santiago SerraM
  • 99A. MarcusM
  • 14L. ZvonarekM
  • 10I. StoicaM
  • 37L. AntonettiF
Substitutes
  • 72H. PoniewasF
  • 19Joan JordánM
  • 79A. ChernevD
  • 22David GriloG
  • 49R. MutebaF
  • 28T. MoustierM
  • 8RobinhoM
  • 71E. Pedro VangaM
  • 17Jefferson EncadaD
Coach: Pepa
Benfica 4-2-3-1
  • 24Samuel SoaresG
  • 6A. BahD
  • 44Tomás AraújoD
  • 2C. LengletD
  • 26S. DahlD
  • 10H. SudakovM
  • 36João PalhinhaM
  • 27RafaM
  • 30C. EcheverriM
  • 25G. PrestianniM
  • 14V. PavlidisF
Substitutes
  • 5E. BarrenecheaM
  • 3A. CircatiD
  • 88Tiago FreitasM
  • 22J. DuránF
  • 34S. El KarouaniD
  • 72A. CabralF
  • 58Daniel BanjaquiD
  • 13J. KamińskiF
  • 11D. LukebakioF
Coach: Marco Silva

Form going into Estrela vs Benfica

Estrela

Primeira Liga

  • L1-2away to Moreirense31 October 2026
  • L0-2Casa Pia24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Arouca11 October 2026
  • L0-2Academico Viseu20 September 2026

Benfica

Primeira Liga

  • W1-0Alverca2 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Santa Clara26 October 2026
  • W2-0Vitória SC11 October 2026
  • L1-3away to FC Porto20 September 2026

What these results say

  • Estrela did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Estrela conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Estrela failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Benfica scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Benfica won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Estrela112451722-510
2Benfica119113010+2028

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Estrela vs Benfica

  • 25 January 2026Benfica 4–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
  • 16 August 2025Estrela 0–1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
  • 2 February 2025Estrela 2–3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
  • 23 November 2024Benfica 7–0 EstrelaTaça de Portugal
  • 24 August 2024Benfica 1–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
  • 29 January 2024Estrela 1–4 BenficaPrimeira Liga

The full Estrela vs Benfica record →

Leading scorers: Estrela and Benfica

Estrela

GoalsAssists

  • L. Antonetti51
  • I. Stoica42
  • A. Marcus41

Benfica

GoalsAssists

  • V. Pavlidis113
  • G. Prestianni74

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Benfica won 3–2 at Estrela. The model had made a win for Benfica its most likely outcome, at 69%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Gianluca Prestianni 26' for Benfica, Lovro Zvonarek 48' for Estrela, Bernardo Schappo (own goal) 68' for Benfica, Leandro Antonetti 76' for Estrela, Vangelis Pavlidis 90+4' for Benfica. On expected goals it finished 1.35–1.09.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Estrela a 18.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 9.1% after a win, 16.0% after a draw, 20.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.1%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.

For Benfica the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 23.4% going in: 25.4% after a win, 17.7% after a draw, 12.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.4%, 2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.