9 August 2026, 11:30 UTC

1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Max-Morlock-Stadion, Nuremberg
Full time3 – 0

Final score: 1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 Dynamo Dresden.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% 1. FC Nürnberg, 24% draw, 24% Dynamo Dresden — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts 1. FC Nürnberg at 52% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Nürnberg99%Draw1%Dynamo Dresden0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. A. Zomaassist: F. O. Becker
9'
•Mohamed Ali Zoma
45+6'
⚽M. A. Zoma
45'
46'
🔁J. Sternerout: S. Straudi
61'
🔁V. Vermeijout: C. Daferner
61'
🔁J. Lemmerout: K. Inanoglu
🔁E. Porstnerout: T. Hess
66'
🔁T. Janischout: G. Masouras
72'
🔁J. Justvanout: R. Lubach
72'
73'
Thomas Keller
74'
Simon Straudi
⚽Mohamed Ali Zoma (pen)
75'
⚽M. A. Zoma
75'
78'
🔁N. Rappout: L. Herrmann
78'
🔁B. Bobzienout: N. Froling
🔁P. Scobelout: A. Grimaldi
85'
🔁M. A. Zomaout: R. Ghrieb
85'

Match stats — 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden

56%Possession44%
16Shots9
7On target1
5Corners5
2.14xG1.23

Goals against chances

1. FC Nürnberg3 from 2.14 xGmore than the chances were worth
Dynamo Dresden0 from 1.23 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1. FC Nürnberg 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. ReichertG
  • 32T. JanischD
  • 4A. KalogeropoulosD
  • 20F. OttoD
  • 41E. PorstnerD
  • 6A. MarkhievM
  • 8J. FernandezM
  • 10J. JustvanM
  • 22F. O. BeckerM
  • 23M. A. ZomaM
  • 19P. ScobelF
Substitutes
  • 13R. LisewskiG
  • 39A. GrimaldiF
  • 21G. MasourasD
  • 18R. LubachM
  • 28C. Y. MoustfaF
  • 7R. GhriebF
  • 43T. HessD
  • 36K. MandicD
  • 35M. Kornwachs BarjuanD
Coach: Miroslav Klose
Dynamo Dresden 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. SchreiberG
  • 32J. SternerD
  • 39T. KellerD
  • 42F. MullerD
  • 19A. RossipalD
  • 18R. WagnerM
  • 6N. RappM
  • 10J. LemmerM
  • 27N. HauptmannM
  • 20B. BobzienM
  • 9V. VermeijF
Substitutes
  • 40E. BethkeG
  • 44S. StraudiD
  • 17A. MuhamedbegovicD
  • 29L. BoederD
  • 33C. DafernerF
  • 8L. HerrmannM
  • 16N. FrolingF
  • 25J. OehmichenM
  • 11K. InanogluF
Coach: Thomas Stamm

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21. FC Nürnberg5410156+913
17Dynamo Dresden5113712-54

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden

  • 9 August 20261. FC Nürnberg 3–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
  • 11 April 20261. FC Nürnberg 0–2 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
  • 7 November 2025Dynamo Dresden 1–2 1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
  • 20 March 2022FC Nurnberg 1–1 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
  • 17 October 2021Dynamo Dresden 0–1 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
  • 20 December 2019FC Nurnberg 2–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: 1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden

1. FC Nürnberg

  • M. Zoma5 goals
  • J. Justvan3 goals1 assists
  • P. Scobel3 goals1 assists

Dynamo Dresden

  • J. Sterner2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.