9 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Moreirense vs SC Braga Primeira Liga prediction & result

Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Conegos
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Moreirense 2-2 SC Braga.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Moreirense, 28% draw, 40% SC Braga — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts SC Braga at 40% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Moreirense0%Draw3%SC Braga97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽F. Navarroassist: Vitor Carvalho
⚽N. Johnassist: A. Duville-Parsemain
8'
18'
Diogo Travassos
Guilherme Liberato
20'
42'
🔁B. Arrey-Mbiout: A. Bajrami
Kevyn Monteiro
45+2'
46'
🔁Travassosout: V. Gomez
57'
🔁M. Dorgelesout: D. Huseinbasic
57'
🔁R. Hortaout: P. Victor
🔁A. Vieiraout: Kiko Bondoso
59'
Nile John
61'
66'
⚽P. Victorassist: D. E. Tiknaz
🔁Rodriout: J. Veloso
67'
🔁N. Johnout: M. Stjepanovic
75'
🔁Guilherme Liberatoout: Yan Maranhao
75'
Gilberto Batista
78'
90+4'
🔁D. E. Tiknazout: J. Moutinho
⚽J. Veloso
90'

Match stats — Moreirense vs SC Braga

36%Possession64%
7Shots12
3On target4
4Corners2
0.21xG0.94

Goals against chances

Moreirense2 from 0.21 xGmore than the chances were worth
SC Braga2 from 0.94 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Moreirense 4-3-3
  • 13A. FerreiraG
  • 2L. SantosD
  • 66G. BatistaD
  • 4Kevyn MonteiroD
  • 27KikoD
  • 23N. JohnM
  • 65Guilherme Liberato
  • 21RodriM
  • 89A. VieiraF
  • 9A. Duville-ParsemainF
  • 11LandersonF
Substitutes
  • 1AranhaG
  • 10Kiko BondosoF
  • 77K. MottohF
  • 25A. AssisM
  • 30J. GowerM
  • 20J. VelosoM
  • 8M. StjepanovicM
  • 17A. MartinezD
  • 99Yan MaranhaoF
Coach: Vasco Costa
SC Braga 3-4-3
  • 31BernardoG
  • 14G. LagerbielkeD
  • 6Vitor CarvalhoD
  • 26B. Arrey-MbiD
  • 7TravassosM
  • 29GorbyM
  • 34D. E. TiknazM
  • 11Gabriel SilvaM
  • 20M. DorgelesF
  • 9F. NavarroF
  • 21R. HortaF
Substitutes
  • 78J. CarvalhoG
  • 12T. SaG
  • 8J. MoutinhoM
  • 23D. HuseinbasicM
  • 44A. BajramiD
  • 5L. LeloD
  • 10P. VictorF
  • 22Sergio BarciaD
  • 77G. MartinezF
Coach: Carlos Vicens

Form going into Moreirense vs SC Braga

Moreirense

No earlier matches on record this season.

SC Braga

  • W1-0Dinamo Minsk6 August 2026
  • W4-0Železničar Pančevo30 July 2026
  • W1-0away to Železničar Pančevo22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Moreirense6213713-67
7SC Braga531175+210

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Moreirense vs SC Braga

  • 9 August 2026Moreirense 2–2 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
  • 4 April 2026Moreirense 0–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
  • 9 November 2025SC Braga 2–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • 16 July 2025SC Braga 2–0 MoreirenseFriendlies Clubs
  • 3 February 2025Moreirense 1–2 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
  • 25 August 2024SC Braga 3–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Moreirense and SC Braga

Moreirense

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

SC Braga

  • Pau Victor3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.