9 August 2026, 11:30 UTC

FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
Full time1 – 1

Final score: FC St. Pauli 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% FC St. Pauli, 23% draw, 45% SpVgg Greuther Fürth — fair odds of 3.13, 4.35 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC St. Pauli5%Draw90%SpVgg Greuther Fürth5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Mathisenassist: B. Hrgota
46'
51'
⚽F. Klausassist: J. Dehm
Arkadiusz Pyrka
61'
70'
🔁O. Pohlmannout: A. Keller
🔁T. Haraout: R. Jones
73'
76'
🔁S. Banseout: D. Arifi
76'
🔁F. Klausout: O. Sillah
🔁A. Pyrkaout: R. Jansson
79'
🔁M. Rasmussenout: E. Smith
85'
🔁L. Oppieout: E. Ahlstrand
85'
87'
🔁J. Dehmout: L. Reich
87'
🔁S. Appelkampout: M. Wallentowitz

Match stats — FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

58%Possession42%
17Shots15
6On target7
9Corners2
1.91xG1.55

Goals against chances

FC St. Pauli1 from 1.91 xGless than the chances were worth
SpVgg Greuther Fürth1 from 1.55 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC St. Pauli 3-4-1-2
  • 1B. A. VollG
  • 4D. NemethD
  • 6M. MathisenD
  • 15T. AndoD
  • 11A. PyrkaM
  • 20M. RasmussenM
  • 16J. FujitaM
  • 23L. OppieM
  • 10B. HrgotaF
  • 19M. KaarsF
  • 18T. HaraF
Substitutes
  • 30S. SpariG
  • 25A. DzwigalaD
  • 21L. RitzkaD
  • 17S. BanksF
  • 8E. SmithM
  • 14E. AhlstrandM
  • 26R. JonesF
  • 2R. JanssonD
  • 47H. SabahM
Coach: Alexander Blessin
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-4-2
  • 1F. HellsternG
  • 23J. DehmD
  • 22J. HeuerD
  • 29K. KeresztesD
  • 27G. ItterD
  • 8S. AppelkampM
  • 6S. BanseM
  • 13P. WillM
  • 10O. PohlmannM
  • 30F. KlausF
  • 7D. SrbenyF
Substitutes
  • 43S. PrufrockG
  • 28D. ArifiM
  • 2L. ReichD
  • 17N. KonigD
  • 11A. KellerM
  • 5M. DalD
  • 42O. SillahF
  • 48J. KrautkramerD
  • 21M. WallentowitzM
Coach: Heiko Vogel

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9FC St. Pauli51317706
11SpVgg Greuther Fürth5122810-25

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

  • 9 August 2026FC St. Pauli 1–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
  • 19 July 2024SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3–1 FC St. PauliFriendlies Clubs
  • 3 February 2024FC St. Pauli 3–2 SpVgg Greuther Furth2. Bundesliga
  • 19 August 2023SpVgg Greuther Furth 0–0 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • 11 March 2023FC St. Pauli 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Furth2. Bundesliga
  • 3 September 2022SpVgg Greuther Furth 2–2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth

FC St. Pauli

  • T. Hara2 goals1 assists

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

  • F. Klaus5 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.