9 August 2026, 11:30 UTC

Energie Cottbus vs Hannover 96 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

LEAG Energie Stadion, Cottbus
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Energie Cottbus 3-1 Hannover 96.

Before kick-off the model made it 11% Energie Cottbus, 14% draw, 75% Hannover 96 — fair odds of 9.09, 7.14 and 1.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-3.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Hannover 96 at 75% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Energie Cottbus99%Draw1%Hannover 960%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽T. Cigerci
14'
28'
⚽M. Neubauer
45+3'
Boris Tomiak
🔁J. Zaydanout: M. Hannemann
46'
🔁J. Boziarisout: F. Doumbia
46'
🔁L. Copadoout: J. Butler
46'
63'
🔁B. Kallmanout: B. Pichler
⚽T. Cigerci (pen)
71'
⚽J. Butlerassist: L. Erlein
76'
🔁L. Bittencourtout: D. Pelivan
77'
79'
🔁M. Neubauerout: F. Roggow
79'
🔁B. Tomiakout: I. Okon
79'
🔁M. Bunduout: H. Matsuda
79'
🔁L. Gindorfout: T. Etcibasi
🔁T. Cigerciout: A. Borgmann
83'
86'
Jean Hugonet

Match stats — Energie Cottbus vs Hannover 96

45%Possession55%
12Shots26
4On target10
2Corners6
1.41xG2.73

Goals against chances

Energie Cottbus3 from 1.41 xGmore than the chances were worth
Hannover 961 from 2.73 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Energie Cottbus 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. LotkaG
  • 3H. RorigD
  • 2K. S. ManuD
  • 21L. ErleinD
  • 42J. ZaydanD
  • 8L. MichelbrinkM
  • 32L. BittencourtM
  • 10T. CigerciM
  • 19J. BoziarisM
  • 9L. CopadoM
  • 18E. EngelhardtF
Substitutes
  • 29K. KratzschG
  • 17J. GuttauM
  • 11M. HannemannF
  • 23F. DoumbiaD
  • 20A. BorgmannD
  • 5D. PelivanM
  • 4T. CampulkaD
  • 31J. ButlerF
  • 7C. KinsombiM
Coach: Claus-Dieter Wollitz
Hannover 96 3-3-3-1
  • 1P. LoretzG
  • 17B. AllgeierD
  • 3B. TomiakD
  • 4J. HugonetD
  • 33M. NeubauerM
  • 23S. T. ThordarsonM
  • 29K. OudenneM
  • 7M. BunduF
  • 8W. TaibiM
  • 25L. GindorfF
  • 9B. KallmanF
Substitutes
  • 30L. WeinkaufG
  • 13F. RoggowM
  • 20I. OkonD
  • 11B. PichlerF
  • 27H. MatsudaD
  • 28T. EtcibasiF
  • 22N. EngelbrethM
  • 26T. HobrechtF
  • 21M. MhangoM
Coach: Christian Titz

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Energie Cottbus52121312+17
15Hannover 96511358-34

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Energie Cottbus vs Hannover 96

  • 9 August 2026Energie Cottbus 3–1 Hannover 962. Bundesliga
  • 16 August 2025Energie Cottbus 1–0 Hannover 96DFB Pokal

Leading scorers: Energie Cottbus and Hannover 96

Energie Cottbus

  • T. Ciğerci4 goals1 assists
  • J. Butler2 goals1 assists

Hannover 96

  • L. Gindorf3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.