Olimpia
vs
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Olimpia 2–0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo
The model makes it 75% Olimpia, 16% draw, 9% Club Sp. San Lorenzo — fair odds of 1.33, 6.25 and 11.11.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Olimpia 2.84, Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0.71.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Olimpia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Olimpia's rating is built from 41 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Club Sp. San Lorenzo's from 19, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Olimpia are top on 42 points from 19 games; Club Sp. San Lorenzo are bottom on 11 points from 19 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Olimpia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Club Guarani.
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Rubio NU.
- Last 6 meetings: Olimpia 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 20 September 2026, ended Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–3 Olimpia.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Olimpia vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Has the model earned this number?
Olimpia at 75%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Olimpia vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Olimpia
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W3-1away to Club Guarani7 November 2026
- W4-1Deportivo Recoleta5 November 2026
- W2-0away to Cerro Porteno1 November 2026
- W3-2away to Sportivo Ameliano25 October 2026
- W3-02 de Mayo17 October 2026
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Division Profesional - Clausura
- D2-2Rubio NU9 November 2026
- W2-0away to Nacional Asuncion3 November 2026
- W2-1Libertad Asuncion31 October 2026
- L1-3Cerro Porteno25 October 2026
- L2-3away to Sportivo Luqueno18 October 2026
What these results say
- Olimpia won every one of these 5 matches.
- Olimpia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Olimpia had three goals or more.
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Club Sp. San Lorenzo had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 14 | +23 | 42 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 19 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 32 | -18 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Olimpia vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
- 20 September 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–3 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 10 May 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–0 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 8 March 2026Olimpia 1–1 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 19 July 2023Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–0 OlimpiaCopa Paraguay
- 1 November 2020Olimpia 3–1 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 17 August 2020Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2–2 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Olimpia and Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Olimpia
GoalsAssists
- G. Ávalos83
- A. Alcaraz71
- R. Benitez43
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
GoalsAssists
- M. Ferreira51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Olimpia a 99.8% chance of the title and Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olimpia the highest probability at 75%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.84 expected goals for Olimpia against 0.71 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo. Olimpia's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.9 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
How the model reaches 75% for Olimpia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Olimpia to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Olimpia's ratings add 17 points and Club Sp. San Lorenzo's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 75%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Olimpia's ratings61%+17
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo's ratings75%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Olimpia at home · Club Sp. San Lorenzo away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Olimpia 19, Club Sp. San Lorenzo 19.
Club Sp. San Lorenzo score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Olimpia have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.