Aarhus vs Benfica UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Aarhus 1-3 Benfica.
Before kick-off the model made it 20% Aarhus, 20% draw, 60% Benfica — fair odds of 5.00, 5.00 and 1.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 60% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aarhus vs Benfica
Aarhus
- D2-2Odense23 August 2026
Benfica
- W3-1Aarhus20 August 2026
- D1-1away to Heart of Midlothian13 August 2026
- W6-1Heart of Midlothian6 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Aarhus and Benfica in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Aarhus | Superliga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 4 |
| 2 | Benfica | UEFA Europa League | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Superliga · UEFA Europa League
Head-to-head: Aarhus vs Benfica
- 20 August 2026Benfica 3–1 AarhusUEFA Europa League
Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.
Leading scorers: Aarhus and Benfica
Aarhus
- J. Serra3 goals
Benfica
- V. Pavlidis5 goals1 assists
- Rafa2 goals1 assists
- A. Schjelderup1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.