27 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Aarhus vs Benfica UEFA Europa League prediction & result

New Vejlby Stadium, Aarhus
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Aarhus 1-3 Benfica.

Before kick-off the model made it 20% Aarhus, 20% draw, 60% Benfica — fair odds of 5.00, 5.00 and 1.67.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa League Play-offs tie. First leg: Benfica 3–1 Aarhus (20 Aug) →

Benfica went through 6–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Benfica at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aarhus0%Draw1%Benfica99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
⚽G. Prestianniassist: A. Bah
Mouhammade Camara
25'
Rasmus Carstensen
45'
🔁J. Serraout: S. Tchamche
46'
55'
⚽Rafa Silva
⚽R. Carstensen
60'
61'
⚽G. Prestianniassist: C. Lenglet
🔁K. Arnstadout: M. Knudsen
62'
🔁M. Andersonout: S. Jorgensen
62'
65'
🔁G. Sudakovout: G. Moreira
65'
🔁Rafa Silvaout: A. Schjelderup
🔁L. Calloout: C. Rosler
69'
74'
🔁V. Pavlidisout: J. Duran
74'
🔁G. Prestianniout: D. Lukebakio
🔁G. Linksout: F. Emmery
83'
83'
🔁C. Lengletout: A. Circati

Match stats — Aarhus vs Benfica

42%Possession58%
3On target8
3Corners5

Line-ups

Aarhus 3-5-2
  • 21M. HedenstadG
  • 26J. AndersenD
  • 33L. CalloD
  • 44M. CamaraD
  • 29R. CarstensenM
  • 16J. JonssonM
  • 10K. ArnstadM
  • 23M. AndersonM
  • 11G. LinksM
  • 31T. BechF
  • 13J. SerraF
Substitutes
  • 1J. HansenG
  • 42M. van der RaadG
  • 19E. KahlD
  • 45C. StorchD
  • 14T. MolgaardD
  • 25C. RoslerD
  • 7M. SolbakkenM
  • 4M. KnudsenM
  • 39F. EmmeryF
Coach: Jakob Poulsen
Benfica 4-1-3-2
  • 24S. SoaresG
  • 6A. BahD
  • 44T. AraujoD
  • 2C. LengletD
  • 26S. DahlD
  • 5E. BarrenecheaM
  • 18L. BarreiroM
  • 10G. SudakovM
  • 27Rafa SilvaM
  • 14V. PavlidisF
  • 25G. PrestianniF
Substitutes
  • 1A. TrubinG
  • 62J. NetoD
  • 3A. CircatiD
  • 33Gabriel Indio
  • 16Manu SilvaM
  • 77G. MoreiraM
  • 20R. RiosM
  • 13J. KaminskiM
  • 22J. DuranF
Coach: Marco Silva

Form going into Aarhus vs Benfica

Aarhus

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Odense23 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Benfica20 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Viborg14 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Sabah FA11 August 2026
  • W2-1Sabah FA5 August 2026

Benfica

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1Aarhus20 August 2026
  • W7-0away to Casa Pia17 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Heart of Midlothian13 August 2026
  • D2-2Academico Viseu9 August 2026
  • W6-1Heart of Midlothian6 August 2026

What these results say

  • Aarhus conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Aarhus had three goals or more.
  • Aarhus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Benfica went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Benfica scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Benfica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Aarhus vs Benfica

  • 20 August 2026Benfica 3–1 AarhusUEFA Europa League

Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.

Leading scorers: Aarhus and Benfica

Aarhus

No leading scorers listed yet.

Benfica

GoalsAssists

  • G. Prestianni22

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Benfica won 3–1 at Aarhus. The model had made a win for Benfica its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: G. Prestianni 19' for Benfica, Rafa Silva 55' for Benfica, R. Carstensen 60' for Aarhus, G. Prestianni 61' for Benfica.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.