20 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Benfica vs Aarhus UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Lisbon
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Benfica 3-1 Aarhus.

Before kick-off the model made it 81% Benfica, 11% draw, 8% Aarhus — fair odds of 1.23, 9.09 and 12.50.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa League Play-offs tie. Second leg: Aarhus v Benfica, 27 Aug →

Benfica went through 6–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Benfica at 81%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Benfica99%Draw1%Aarhus0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Rafa Silva
2'
Leandro Barreiro
9'
Tomás Araújo
24'
⚽L. Barreiro
31'
36'
⚽S. Jorgensenassist: J. Andersen
•Vangelis Pavlidis
45+1'
⚽V. Pavlidis (pen)
45'
57'
🔁C. Roslerout: R. Carstensen
57'
🔁S. Jorgensenout: S. Tchamche
🔁L. Barreiroout: R. Rios
66'
🔁V. Pavlidisout: J. Duran
72'
🔁G. Prestianniout: A. Schjelderup
72'
73'
🔁M. Knudsenout: J. Jonsson
73'
🔁F. Emmeryout: G. Links
81'
🔁J. Bogereout: M. Anderson
83'
Stefen Tchamche
🔁G. Sudakovout: F. Aursnes
84'
🔁Rafa Silvaout: J. Kaminski
84'

Match stats — Benfica vs Aarhus

71%Possession29%
13On target1
11Corners1

Line-ups

Benfica 4-1-3-2
  • 24S. SoaresG
  • 6A. BahD
  • 2C. LengletD
  • 44T. AraujoD
  • 26S. DahlD
  • 18L. BarreiroM
  • 25G. PrestianniM
  • 5E. BarrenecheaM
  • 10G. SudakovM
  • 14V. PavlidisF
  • 27Rafa SilvaM
Substitutes
  • 1A. TrubinG
  • 58D. BanjaquiD
  • 62J. NetoD
  • 33Gabriel Indio
  • 8F. AursnesM
  • 16Manu SilvaM
  • 20R. RiosM
  • 13J. KaminskiM
  • 22J. DuranF
Coach: Marco Silva
Aarhus 3-5-2
  • 21M. HedenstadG
  • 25C. RoslerD
  • 44M. CamaraD
  • 19E. KahlD
  • 26J. AndersenM
  • 8S. JorgensenM
  • 10K. ArnstadF
  • 4M. KnudsenM
  • 39F. EmmeryF
  • 31T. BechF
  • 28J. BogereF
Substitutes
  • 1J. HansenG
  • 42M. van der RaadG
  • 45C. StorchD
  • 14T. MolgaardD
  • 33L. CalloD
  • 16J. JonssonM
  • 11G. LinksM
  • 29R. CarstensenM
  • 23M. AndersonM
Coach: Jakob Poulsen

Form going into Benfica vs Aarhus

Benfica

All competitions we cover

  • W7-0away to Casa Pia17 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Heart of Midlothian13 August 2026
  • D2-2Academico Viseu9 August 2026
  • W6-1Heart of Midlothian6 August 2026
  • W5-0FC St. Gallen30 July 2026

Aarhus

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Viborg14 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Sabah FA11 August 2026
  • W2-1Sabah FA5 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Lyngby1 August 2026
  • W3-0away to Lech Poznan29 July 2026

What these results say

  • Benfica went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Benfica scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Benfica had three goals or more.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Aarhus had three goals or more.
  • Aarhus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Aarhus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Leading scorers: Benfica and Aarhus

Benfica

GoalsAssists

  • G. Prestianni22

Aarhus

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Benfica beat Aarhus 3–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Benfica at 81%. The goals: Rafa Silva 2' for Benfica, L. Barreiro 31' for Benfica, S. Jorgensen 36' for Aarhus, V. Pavlidis (penalty) 45' for Benfica.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.