22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Cepheus Park, Randers
Referee: Ante Čulina, Croatia
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Aarhus 1-1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë.

Before kick-off the model made it 70% Aarhus, 19% draw, 11% Egnatia Rrogozhinë — fair odds of 1.43, 5.26 and 9.09.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Aarhus at 70%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aarhus5%Draw92%Egnatia Rrogozhinë3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Eric Kahl
3'
11'
Andrey Yago
🔁C. McCowattout: T. Molgaard
12'
13'
⚽I. Grudaassist: D. Adjessa
16'
Altin Kryeziu
Kristian Arnstad
39'
🔁F. Tingagerout: D. L. Gretarsson
46'
🔁J. Serraout: J. Bogere
46'
⚽J. Bogereassist: S. Jorgensen
49'
54'
🔁A. Yagoout: E. Ndreca
54'
🔁A. Kryeziuout: Fernando Medeiros
63'
🔁G. Jaimeout: G. Smajli
63'
🔁A. Albaneseout: N. Ajetovikj
🔁J. Andersenout: F. Emmery
66'
72'
Eneo Bitri
🔁S. Jorgensenout: T. Bech
83'
87'
🔁K. Loukiliout: I. Diabate
90+3'
Ibrahim Diabaté

Match stats — Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

34%Possession66%
9Shots13
2On target7
5Corners4
1.03xG0.79

Goals against chances

Aarhus1 from 1.03 xGabout what the chances were worth
Egnatia Rrogozhinë1 from 0.79 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Aarhus 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. HansenG
  • 25C. RoslerD
  • 5F. TingagerD
  • 19E. KahlD
  • 29R. CarstensenM
  • 10K. ArnstadM
  • 7M. SolbakkenM
  • 26J. AndersenM
  • 8S. JorgensenF
  • 18C. McCowattF
  • 13J. SerraF
Substitutes
  • 21M. HedenstadG
  • 42M. van der RaadG
  • 3D. L. GretarssonD
  • 14T. MolgaardD
  • 33L. CalloD
  • 43Z. GrantzauD
  • 16J. JonssonM
  • 4M. KnudsenM
  • 31T. BechF
Coach: Jakob Poulsen
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 4-3-1-2
  • 98M. DajsinaniG
  • 22G. JaimeD
  • 33E. BitriD
  • 28E. SotaD
  • 29A. YagoD
  • 17A. KryeziuM
  • 6A. AleksiM
  • 20K. LoukiliM
  • 10A. AlbaneseM
  • 2D. AdjessaF
  • 77I. GrudaF
Substitutes
  • 12B. PujaG
  • 1L. TandilashviliG
  • 55G. SmajliD
  • 24N. AjetovikjD
  • 16E. NdrecaD
  • 4Z. AliyevD
  • 13A. Kacbufi
  • 7Fernando MedeirosM
  • 8I. DiabateM
Coach: Nevil Dede

Form going into Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Aarhus

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • L0-1away to Gent15 October 2026

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • D1-1FC Midtjylland15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
24Aarhus302112-12
26Egnatia Rrogozhinë302124-22

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Aarhus and Egnatia Rrogozhinë drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Aarhus at 70% and given a draw 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: I. Gruda 13' for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, J. Bogere 49' for Aarhus. Sent off: Eric Kahl (Aarhus) 3'. On expected goals it finished 1.03–0.79.

How the call on Aarhus v Egnatia Rrogozhinë has moved

First published on 8 Oct at 67% / 20% / 13% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 70% / 19% / 11%: the biggest move is Aarhus's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Aarhus win70%▲ +3
  2. Draw19%▼ −1
  3. Egnatia Rrogozhinë win11%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.