Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Union St. Gilloise 4-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva.
Before kick-off the model made it 72% Union St. Gilloise, 18% draw, 10% Hapoel Beer Sheva — fair odds of 1.39, 5.56 and 10.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Union St. Gilloise at 72%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12H. KoffiG
- 4N. ChibaniD
- 29M. SyllaD
- 55N. HavenaarD
- 6K. Van de PerreM
- 27L. PatrisM
- 28D. OlaruM
- 23B. ZeneliM
- 11Guilherme Henriques da Silva CarvalhoM
- 9M. BiondicF
- 38R. MofokengF
- 20D. AquinoF
- 1V. ChambaereG
- 21D. De RoeveD
- 30R. FloruczF
- 39youssef hamoutaharF
- 18G. KavelashviliG
- 13K. RodríguezF
- 26R. SykesD
- 43Daniel Tshilanda KabongoD
- 1O. MarcianoG
- 2G. MizrahiD
- 4M. VítorD
- 12I. RotmanD
- 5Pedro AmadorD
- 17A. ForsonM
- 28N. YehoshuaM
- 7E. PeretzM
- 20J. EastF
- 66I. ZlatanovićF
- 9Z. AhmedF
- 13O. DavidzadaD
- 44D. DiopD
- 11A. GanahF
- 70João VictorF
- 14Y. MaledeF
- 36Y. ShaniG
- 90A. UgarrizaF
- 3M. BaltaxaD
- 45M. Abu RumiF
Form going into Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Union St. Gilloise
UEFA Europa League
- D1-1Real Sociedad15 October 2026
- W3-0away to Plzen17 September 2026
Hapoel Beer Sheva
UEFA Europa League
- L1-2away to AZ Alkmaar15 October 2026
- D0-0Dinamo Zagreb16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 10 |
| 33 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Union St. Gilloise beat Hapoel Beer Sheva 4–0. The model had made a win for Union St. Gilloise its most likely outcome, at 72%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Raul Florucz (penalty) 45+1' for Union St. Gilloise, Guilherme Smith 60' for Union St. Gilloise, Dylan Aquino 77' for Union St. Gilloise, Guilherme Smith 81' for Union St. Gilloise. On expected goals it finished 2.76–0.65.
How the call on Union St. Gilloise v Hapoel Beer Sheva has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 76% / 16% / 8% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 72% / 18% / 10%: the biggest move is Union St. Gilloise's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Union St. Gilloise win72%▼ −4
- Draw18%▲ +2
- Hapoel Beer Sheva win10%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.