Sturm Graz vs Marseille UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Sturm Graz 1-0 Marseille.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Sturm Graz, 27% draw, 42% Marseille — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Europa League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Marseille at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sturm Graz vs Marseille
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22A. HelacG
- 23A. MalicD
- 2J. QuarshieD
- 30P. KollerD
- 43Jacob Peter HödlM
- 4J. Gorenc StankovičM
- 78V. MatoshiM
- 27L. BalboM
- 39Luca WeinhandlM
- 19S. SeidlF
- 14O. DiakitéF
- 26B. BeganovićF
- 25M. GrgicM
- 40J. HalwachsM
- 11A. KayomboF
- 41E. LorenzG
- 21P. PetrovićD
- 5A. VallciD
- 32C. Wiener-PucherG
- 12J. de LangeG
- 74K. BezahafD
- 18B. MeitéD
- 21N. AguerdD
- 25U. GarciaD
- 42Nouhoum KamissokoM
- 19G. KondogbiaM
- 48K. AbdallahM
- 7A. GomesM
- 9A. GouiriM
- 11N. MaupayF
- 23P. HøjbjergM
- 43T. MmadiF
- 6T. NnadiM
- 14Igor PaixãoF
- 22T. WeahF
- 44Antoine ValeroF
- 8H. AbdelliM
- 77A. HaritM
- 33EmersonD
Form going into Sturm Graz vs Marseille
Sturm Graz
UEFA Europa League
- L0-3away to Bournemouth15 October 2026
- D0-0Rennes16 September 2026
Marseille
UEFA Europa League
- L0-1Olympiakos Piraeus15 October 2026
- L1-4away to Beşiktaş17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Sturm Graz and Marseille
Sturm Graz
GoalsAssists
- O. Diakité30
Marseille
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sturm Graz beat Marseille 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Marseille at 42% and given a win for Sturm Graz 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Oumar Diakité 13' for Sturm Graz. On expected goals it finished 1.47–0.73.
How the call on Sturm Graz v Marseille has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 29% / 27% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 31% / 27% / 42%: the biggest move is Sturm Graz's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Sturm Graz win31%▲ +2
- Draw27%=
- Marseille win42%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.