22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

FK Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Stadion Rajko Mit, Belgrade
Referee: Radu Marian Petrescu, Romania
Full time2 – 2

Final score: FK Crvena Zvezda 2-2 FC Copenhagen.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% FK Crvena Zvezda, 26% draw, 27% FC Copenhagen — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FK Crvena Zvezda at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
J. Suzuki
Y. Nakayama
22'
29'
⚽M. Gashtarov (OG)
⚽T. Elsnikassist: V. Lucic
34'
R. Krunic
38'
40'
H. Nemeth
⚽V. Kostovassist: M. Ristic
41'
46'
🔁J. Suzukiout: A. Markgraf
46'
🔁A. Corneliusout: V. Dadason
🔁T. Handelout: M. Cham
62'
62'
🔁R. Huescasout: M. Lopez
62'
🔁Robertout: M. Madsen
70'
⚽M. Carrizoassist: A. Markgraf
80'
🔁M. Carrizoout: M. Elyounoussi
🔁V. Lucicout: L. Loizou
84'
🔁V. Kostovout: M. Abu Fani
84'
S. Gudelj
90+3'

Match stats — FK Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen

58%Possession42%
12Shots8
5On target2
4Corners6
0.78xG0.53

Goals against chances

FK Crvena Zvezda2 from 0.78 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Copenhagen2 from 0.53 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FK Crvena Zvezda 3-2-4-1
  • 1MatheusG
  • 60Matej GaštarovD
  • 45Stefan GudeljD
  • 3Yuta NakayamaD
  • 20Tomás HändelM
  • 33Rade KrunićM
  • 37Vladimir LučićF
  • 21Timi Max ElšnikM
  • 22Vasilije KostovM
  • 23Mihailo RistićF
  • 9Ahmadou Bamba DiengF
Substitutes
  • 70Muhammed-Cham SaračevićM
  • 15Mohammad Abu FaniM
  • 75Loizos LoizouF
  • 50Savo RadanovićG
  • 13Miloš VeljkovićD
  • 30Franklin TeboD
  • 4Mirko IvanićM
  • 6Mahmudu BajoM
  • 8Kristiyan BalovF
FC Copenhagen 3-4-2-1
  • 1Diant RamajG
  • 2Felix BeijmoD
  • 4Asger SørensenD
  • 20Junnosuke SuzukiD
  • 13Rodrigo HuescasM
  • 28Hunor NémethM
  • 27Thomas DelaneyM
  • 24Birger MelingM
  • 7Maher CarrizoF
  • 16RobertF
  • 14Andreas CorneliusF
Substitutes
  • 6Ákos MarkgráfD
  • 39Viktor Bjarki DadasonF
  • 15Marcos LópezD
  • 21Mads Emil MadsenM
  • 10Mohamed ElyounoussiM
  • 31Rúnar Alex RúnarssonG
  • 51Tobias Breum-HarildG
  • 18Kenay MyrieD
  • 34Marvin NasnasM

Form going into FK Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen

FK Crvena Zvezda

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • L2-3away to FC Lugano15 October 2026

FC Copenhagen

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • W3-0SC Braga15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15FK Crvena Zvezda31116604
7FC Copenhagen321073+47

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FK Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen

  • 13 August 2019FC Copenhagen 2–2 FK Crvena ZvezdaUEFA Champions League
  • 6 August 2019FK Crvena Zvezda 1–1 FC CopenhagenUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: FK Crvena Zvezda and FC Copenhagen

FK Crvena Zvezda

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

FC Copenhagen

GoalsAssists

  • M. Elyounoussi53
  • A. Cornelius52
  • Robert41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FK Crvena Zvezda and FC Copenhagen drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for FK Crvena Zvezda at 47% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Gashtarov (own goal) 29' for FC Copenhagen, T. Elsnik 34' for FK Crvena Zvezda, V. Kostov 41' for FK Crvena Zvezda, M. Carrizo 70' for FC Copenhagen. Sent off: S. Gudelj (FK Crvena Zvezda) 90+3'. On expected goals it finished 0.78–0.53.

How the call on FK Crvena Zvezda v FC Copenhagen has moved

First published on 8 Oct at 43% / 26% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 47% / 26% / 27%: the biggest move is FK Crvena Zvezda's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. FK Crvena Zvezda win47%▲ +4
  2. Draw26%=
  3. FC Copenhagen win27%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.