Ajax vs Atalanta UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Ajax 2-0 Atalanta.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Ajax, 26% draw, 28% Atalanta — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Conference League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Ajax at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ajax vs Atalanta
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 2L. RosaD
- 30A. BouwmanD
- 15Y. BaasD
- 5O. WijndalD
- 24J. MokioM
- 4S. AmrabatM
- 18D. KlaassenM
- 8J. BrandtM
- 10O. GloukhM
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
- 22J. HeerkensG
- 26M. PaesG
- 36D. JanseD
- 21J. TorrentsD
- 6T. KehrerD
- 43R. BounidaF
- 68A. OuazaneM
- 67M. AbdallaM
- 11V. TsygankovF
- 29M. CarnesecchiG
- 16R. BellanovaD
- 31T. KristensenD
- 40R. ObricD
- 77D. ZappacostaD
- 70G. GaetanoM
- 13EdersonM
- 99E. ElmasM
- 17C. De KetelaereM
- 59N. ZalewskiM
- 9G. ScamaccaF
- 57M. SportielloG
- 51M. SonzogniG
- 55I. IsoaD
- 47L. BernasconiD
- 48A. BonanomiM
- 41J. IdeleM
- 8M. PasalicM
- 10L. SamardzicM
- 46S. LevakM
Form going into Ajax vs Atalanta
Ajax
UEFA Europa Conference League
- L1-2away to HNK Hajduk Split15 October 2026
Atalanta
UEFA Europa Conference League
- W3-1Pafos15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ajax | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 16 | Atalanta | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ajax vs Atalanta
- 9 December 2020Ajax 0–1 AtalantaUEFA Champions League
- 27 October 2020Atalanta 2–2 AjaxUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers: Ajax and Atalanta
Ajax
GoalsAssists
- T. Arokodare63
- D. Klaassen60
- O. Gloukh52
Atalanta
No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ajax beat Atalanta 2–0. The model had made a win for Ajax its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: T. Arokodare 87' for Ajax, A. Ouazane 90' for Ajax. On expected goals it finished 1.78–0.97.
How the call on Ajax v Atalanta has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 46% / 26% / 28%: the biggest move is Ajax's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Ajax win46%▲ +3
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Atalanta win28%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Ajax's most recent league matches and Atalanta's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.