27 October 2026, 12:40 UTC

Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC Pro League prediction & result

Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Abha
Referee: Abdulsamad Bakri
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Abha 0-1 Al-Faisaly FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Abha, 27% draw, 39% Al-Faisaly FC — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Faisaly FC at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Abha0%Draw4%Al-Faisaly FC96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Khaled Al Shamraniout: Mohammed Bandar Abdullah Al Zaid
10'
41'
Flávio
Jurien Gaari
55'
70'
⚽Flávioassist: Abdulaziz Al-Bishi
🔁Abdulkarim Darisiout: Loreintz Rosier
76'
🔁Firas Al-Ghamdiout: Kheshim Al Qahtani
76'
76'
🔁Abdulaziz Al-Bishiout: André-Jordy Ella
76'
🔁Theo Bongondaout: Jaime Seoane
86'
🔁Mohammed Ali Al Shanqitiout: Eid Al-Muwallad
🔁Nabil Fekirout: Kamil Boumedmed
90+2'
🔁Georges-Kévin N'Koudouout: Safwan Al Johani
90+2'
90+5'
🔁Abdullah Al-Mogrenout: Abdulrahman Al Safari

Match stats — Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC

58%Possession42%
15Shots7
4On target3
11Corners4
1.52xG1.01

Goals against chances

Abha0 from 1.52 xGless than the chances were worth
Al-Faisaly FC1 from 1.01 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Abha 4-2-3-1
  • 16D. LéonG
  • 23Mohammed Al DossaryD
  • 3J. GaariD
  • 19Abdullah Al FahadD
  • 12K. Al ShamraniD
  • 8Nasser Al-DaajaniM
  • 7Firas Al-GhamdiM
  • 11A. GoryM
  • 10N. FekirM
  • 14G. NkoudouM
  • 17Abdulkarim DarisiF
Substitutes
  • 80Safwan SaudD
  • 28Bader Al MutairiM
  • 20Koshaim Al KaraniF
  • 6Faisal Al SubianiM
  • 39M. Al-ZaidM
  • 9Kamil BoumedmedF
  • 37Abdulbasit Al-HindiD
  • 26Mustafa MalayekahG
  • 32L. RosierM
Coach: D. Burić
Al-Faisaly FC 3-4-3
  • 1Fernando PachecoG
  • 87A. BaD
  • 4A. SeckD
  • 5Andrei GirottoD
  • 2Yaseen BarnawiM
  • 8FlávioM
  • 14Abdullah AlmuqrinM
  • 50Mohammed Ali Al ShanqitiM
  • 10T. BongondaF
  • 19Alexandre MendyF
  • 24Abdulaziz Al BishiF
Substitutes
  • 47Faisal Mohammed Ibrahim Al FahadF
  • 26Mohammed Al HasawiG
  • 6Eid Al MuwalladM
  • 18Abdulrahman Al SafariM
  • 77A. Al ShereafM
  • 88Saud HaddadD
  • 70Mohammed JahfaliD
  • 20Jaime SeoaneM
  • 11A. EllaF
Coach: G. Solinas

Form going into Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC

Abha

Pro League

  • L0-2away to NEOM24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Al-Qadisiyah FC16 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Al Diriyah13 September 2026

Al-Faisaly FC

Pro League

  • L1-3Al-Nassr23 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Al Shabab19 October 2026
  • W3-2Al Kholood15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Abha11038719-123
15Al-Faisaly FC122461324-1110

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC

  • 21 January 2026Al-Faisaly FC 0–2 AbhaDivision 1
  • 11 September 2025Abha 2–2 Al-Faisaly FCDivision 1
  • 18 February 2025Al-Faisaly FC 2–2 AbhaDivision 1
  • 1 October 2024Abha 3–1 Al-Faisaly FCDivision 1
  • 6 May 2022Abha 0–0 Al-Faisaly FCPro League
  • 4 November 2021Al-Faisaly FC 1–0 AbhaPro League

Leading scorers: Abha and Al-Faisaly FC

Abha

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Al-Faisaly FC

GoalsAssists

  • Alexandre Mendy51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Faisaly FC won 1–0 at Abha. The model had made a win for Al-Faisaly FC its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Flávio 70' for Al-Faisaly FC. On expected goals it finished 1.52–1.01.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Abha a 62.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 55.3% after a win, 63.2% after a draw, 69.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.3%, 6.7 points higher than before the match.

For Al-Faisaly FC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 18.5% going in: 13.0% after a win, 19.4% after a draw, 23.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.0%, 5.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Abha v Al-Faisaly FC has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 36% / 30% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 34% / 27% / 39%: the biggest move is Al-Faisaly FC's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Abha win34%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▼ −3
  3. Al-Faisaly FC win39%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.