27 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Padova vs Sudtirol Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Euganeo, Padova
Referee: Edoardo Manedo Mazzoni
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Padova 2-0 Sudtirol.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Padova, 32% draw, 31% Sudtirol — fair odds of 2.70, 3.13 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Padova at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Padova99%Draw1%Sudtirol0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Gabriele Artisticoassist: Giovanni·Giunti
19'
45'
🔁Aljosa Vasicout: Rares Burnete
62'
🔁Dhirar Brikout: Fabio Rispoli
Matteo Lovato
68'
68'
Salvatore Molina
Matteo Cocchi
69'
🔁Matteo Cocchiout: Lorenzo Carissoni
70'
🔁Luca Moroout: Alexander Seghetti
70'
72'
🔁Alvin Okoroout: Kenny Meddy Mixtur
Pietro Fusi
74'
🔁Emanuele Zuelliout: Alessandro Capelli
78'
🔁Marco Pompettiout: Kevin Varas
78'
81'
Fabio Rispoli
81'
🔁Federico Daviout: Kevin Zeroli
⚽Alessandro Capelli
87'
•Kevin Varas
87'
🔁Pietro Fusiout: Nicolas Galazzi
90'
Alessandro Dellavalle
90+2'

Match stats — Padova vs Sudtirol

38%Possession62%
12Shots22
5On target5
3Corners6
1.58xG1.82

Goals against chances

Padova2 from 1.58 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sudtirol0 from 1.82 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Padova 3-5-2
  • 22A. SorrentinoG
  • 27Alessandro DellavalleD
  • 5M. LovatoD
  • 58C. PastinaD
  • 14M. PompettiM
  • 21E. ZuelliM
  • 6G. GiuntiM
  • 8P. FusiM
  • 34M. CocchiM
  • 90G. ArtisticoF
  • 9L. MoroF
Substitutes
  • 17A. CapelliM
  • 24L. CarissoniD
  • 23F. Di MarianoM
  • 72C. FaedoD
  • 25N. GalazziM
  • 74D. MarcoliniM
  • 1L. MouquetG
  • 11A. SeghettiF
  • 32F. SgarbiD
Coach: N. Calabro
Sudtirol 3-4-2-1
  • 22A. PlizzariG
  • 4R. StivanelloD
  • 55A. GiorginiD
  • 3D. VeroliD
  • 79S. MolinaM
  • 46D. BrikM
  • 5S. TronchinM
  • 23F. DaviM
  • 11Vasco LopesM
  • 14A. VasicM
  • 90A. OkoroF
Substitutes
  • 9R. BurneteF
  • 24S. DavìD
  • 19M. PelliniD
  • 10Fabio RispoliM
  • 27G. StabileD
  • 21F. TaitM
  • 18Kevin ZeroliM
  • 17L. AnghelèF
  • 39Marco IulianoD
Coach: D. Possanzini

Form going into Padova vs Sudtirol

Padova

Serie B

  • W1-0away to Avellino24 October 2026
  • L1-2Virtus Entella17 October 2026

Sudtirol

Serie B

  • D1-1Sampdoria24 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Juve Stabia18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Padova114341213-115
12Sudtirol113621312+115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Padova vs Sudtirol

  • 25 January 2026Sudtirol 3–0 PadovaSerie B
  • 1 November 2025Padova 1–1 SudtirolSerie B
  • 16 April 2022Sudtirol 0–0 PadovaSerie C - Girone A
  • 6 April 2022Sudtirol 0–1 PadovaCoppa Italia Serie C
  • 9 March 2022Padova 0–0 SudtirolCoppa Italia Serie C
  • 12 December 2021Padova 0–0 SudtirolSerie C - Girone A

The result against the call

Padova beat Sudtirol 2–0. The model had made a win for Padova its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Gabriele Artistico 19' for Padova, Alessandro Capelli 87' for Padova. On expected goals it finished 1.58–1.82.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Padova a 12.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 9.1% after a win, 13.0% after a draw, 15.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.1%, 3.3 points lower than before the match.

For Sudtirol the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 5.1% going in: 2.8% after a win, 5.1% after a draw, 6.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.2%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Padova v Sudtirol has moved

First published on 13 Oct at 34% / 32% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 37% / 32% / 31%: the biggest move is Padova's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Padova win37%▲ +3
  2. Draw32%=
  3. Sudtirol win31%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.