Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC Liga Pro prediction & result
Final score: Libertad 4-0 Guayaquil City FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Libertad, 25% draw, 24% Guayaquil City FC — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Libertad at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12D. CabezasG
- 17E. PattaD
- 6B. CaicedoD
- 2R. MorinigoD
- 19O. QuiñónezD
- 20J. RodríguezD
- 70Vilinton Germán Branda MerlínM
- 80X. PinedaM
- 30J. BravoM
- 10G. CortézM
- 33A. ChéreF
- 8Stick Carlos Castro PalmaM
- 49D. CoronelF
- 9E. CaicedoF
- 66J. EstacioM
- 5C. GruezoM
- 23J. GuisamanoM
- 25M. LucasD
- 1P. MinaG
- 7Carlos Alfredo Orejuela QuiñónezM
- 30J. PinosG
- 33R. CaicedoD
- 3Y. RodríguezD
- 4E. LadinesD
- 6R. AriasD
- 17J. AyoviM
- 14D. ArroyoM
- 70P. MancillaM
- 80P. GonzálezM
- 21D. DorregarayF
- 11E. MeroF
- 23M. BolañosF
- 51E. CabezasD
- 7J. CaicedoF
- 20S. LaurinoM
- 1G. NapaG
- 19A. NaulaM
- 16J. OrdóñezM
- 9M. PalmaF
- 12Rodrigo Ramiro Perea SalazarG
Form going into Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC
Libertad
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Leones del Norte9 October 2026
Guayaquil City FC
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Emelec10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC
- 15 August 2026Guayaquil City FC 2–2 LibertadLiga Pro
- 21 April 2026Libertad 0–1 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
- 10 October 2023Libertad 1–0 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
- 6 May 2023Guayaquil City FC 1–1 LibertadLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Libertad and Guayaquil City FC
Libertad
GoalsAssists
- Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín132
- G. Cortéz65
Guayaquil City FC
GoalsAssists
- E. Mero135
- D. Dorregaray92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Libertad beat Guayaquil City FC 4–0. The model had made a win for Libertad its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Gabriel Cortez 40' for Libertad, Vilinton German Branda Merlin 48' for Libertad, Vilinton German Branda Merlin 59' for Libertad, Jackson Rodriguez 67' for Libertad. On expected goals it finished 1.97–0.78.
How the call on Libertad v Guayaquil City FC has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 51% / 25% / 24%: the biggest move is Libertad's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Libertad win51%▲ +7
- Draw25%▼ −3
- Guayaquil City FC win24%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.