Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Accrington Stanley vs Salford City League Two prediction

The Wham Stadium, Accrington

Our model says: Accrington Stanley 1–2 Salford City

The model makes it 34% Accrington Stanley, 27% draw, 39% Salford City — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Accrington Stanley 1.35, Salford City 1.48.

Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

Edge to Salford City: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Accrington Stanley are 13th on 19 points from 15 games; Salford City are top on 32 points from 15 games — League Two.
  • Accrington Stanley have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Port Vale.
  • Salford City are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Northampton.
  • Last 6 meetings: Accrington Stanley 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 October 2026, ended Accrington Stanley 1–1 Salford City.

More League Two predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Accrington Stanley vs Salford City

58%
Both teams to score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Accrington Stanley win Draw Salford City win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 0–18%
  4. 2–18%
  5. 1–07%
  6. 0–06%
  7. 0–26%

Scores read Accrington Stanley first; the other scorelines share the remaining 43%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Salford City at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Accrington Stanley vs Salford City

Accrington Stanley

League Two

  • L2-4away to Port Vale14 November 2026
  • D1-1Northampton31 October 2026
  • W5-0away to Rochdale24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to York20 October 2026
  • W3-1Gillingham17 October 2026

Salford City

League Two

  • D1-1Northampton14 November 2026
  • W2-1Exeter City31 October 2026
  • W4-2away to Walsall26 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Bristol Rovers20 October 2026
  • W2-1Crawley Town17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Accrington Stanley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Accrington Stanley conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Accrington Stanley.
  • Salford City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Salford City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Salford City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Accrington Stanley154742521+419
1Salford City1510232616+1032

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Accrington Stanley

Chance to finish in the top three

Win 7%
Draw 5%
Defeat 3%

Salford City

Chance to finish in the top three · 65% today

Win 71%
Draw 63%
Defeat 60%

From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Accrington Stanley vs Salford City

  • 6 October 2026Accrington Stanley 1–1 Salford CityEFL Trophy
  • 5 February 2026Accrington Stanley 1–0 Salford CityLeague Two
  • 16 August 2025Salford City 2–1 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
  • 18 April 2025Salford City 1–2 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
  • 21 December 2024Accrington Stanley 0–2 Salford CityLeague Two
  • 1 January 2024Accrington Stanley 3–0 Salford CityLeague Two

Leading scorers: Accrington Stanley and Salford City

Accrington Stanley

GoalsAssists

  • J. Woods71
  • C. Caton50

Salford City

GoalsAssists

  • M. Langstaff51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Accrington Stanley a 0.5% chance of the title and Salford City 29%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Accrington Stanley v Salford City has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 34% / 27% / 39%: the biggest move is Salford City's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Accrington Stanley win34%▼ −1
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Salford City win39%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Accrington Stanley Salford City
0.52 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.57
2.14 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.77
1.35 Model expected goals (this match) 1.48

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Salford City the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Accrington Stanley against 1.48 for Salford City. Accrington Stanley's attack/defence rating is 0.52/2.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.77 for Salford City.

Accrington Stanley carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6.28 for Salford City. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 39% for Salford City to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Salford City to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Accrington Stanley's ratings add 3 points and Salford City's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage31%−5
  3. Both sides at this match's level32%+1
  4. Accrington Stanley's ratings35%+3
  5. Salford City's ratings39%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Accrington StanleySalford City
15Matches15
4W 7D 4LRecord10W 2D 3L
25 1.7 per gameGoals scored26 1.7 per game
21 1.4 per gameGoals conceded16 1.1 per game
4 of 15Clean sheets4 of 15
3 of 15Failed to score2 of 15
1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1
38 2.5 per gameYellow cards24 1.6 per game
1Red cards1
3-4-1-2 10×Usual shape5-3-2 7×

Accrington Stanley at home · Salford City away

7Played7
3W 4D 0LRecord4W 1D 2L
13–8Goals for – against16–11
2 of 7Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League Two matches this season: Accrington Stanley 15, Salford City 15.

Accrington Stanley scored 832844
Salford City conceded 224431
Salford City scored 332459
Accrington Stanley conceded 332422

Salford City score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Accrington Stanley have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Accrington Stanley

Salford City

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.