Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Barnet vs Port Vale League Two prediction

The Hive Stadium, London

Our model says: Barnet 2–1 Port Vale

The model makes it 51% Barnet, 25% draw, 24% Port Vale — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Barnet 1.94, Port Vale 1.16.

Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

Edge to Barnet: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Barnet's rating is built from 59 League Two matches and Port Vale's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.

Key facts

  • Barnet are 2nd on 26 points from 13 games; Port Vale are 17th on 18 points from 13 games — League Two.
  • Barnet are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Crewe.
  • Port Vale have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win at home to Accrington Stanley.
  • Last 6 meetings: Port Vale 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 March 2018, ended Barnet 1–1 Port Vale.

More League Two predictions

All League Two predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Barnet vs Port Vale

59%
Both teams to score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Barnet win Draw Port Vale win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 2–09%
  4. 1–08%
  5. 3–16%
  6. 1–26%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read Barnet first; the other scorelines share the remaining 44%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Barnet at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Barnet vs Port Vale

Barnet

League Two

  • D1-1away to Crewe31 October 2026
  • W3-1York27 October 2026
  • D1-1Oldham24 October 2026
  • L1-3Swindon Town20 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Tranmere17 October 2026

Port Vale

League Two

  • W4-2Accrington Stanley14 November 2026
  • W4-2Rochdale31 October 2026
  • L0-2away to York24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Gillingham20 October 2026
  • W1-0Chesterfield17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Barnet scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Barnet conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Barnet.
  • Port Vale scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Port Vale conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Barnet137512818+1026
17Port Vale135351416-218

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Barnet

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 37% today

Win 40%
Draw 34%
Defeat 30%

Port Vale

Chance to finish in the top three · 7% today

Win 9%
Draw 7%
Defeat 6%

From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Barnet vs Port Vale

  • 13 March 2018Barnet 1–1 Port ValeLeague Two
  • 18 November 2017Port Vale 1–0 BarnetLeague Two
  • 9 February 2013Barnet 0–0 Port ValeLeague Two
  • 18 August 2012Port Vale 3–0 BarnetLeague Two
  • 10 March 2012Port Vale 1–2 BarnetLeague Two
  • 13 August 2011Barnet 1–3 Port ValeLeague Two

Leading scorers: Barnet and Port Vale

Barnet

GoalsAssists

  • K. Tshimanga104
  • C. Lakin63

Port Vale

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Barnet a 36.8% chance of the title and Port Vale 1.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Barnet v Port Vale has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 53% / 26% / 21% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 51% / 25% / 24%: the biggest move is Port Vale's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Barnet win51%▼ −2
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Port Vale win24%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Barnet Port Vale
0.67 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.46
2.07 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.97
1.94 Model expected goals (this match) 1.16

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Barnet the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Barnet against 1.16 for Port Vale. Barnet's attack/defence rating is 0.67/2.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.97 for Port Vale.

Barnet carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.12 for Port Vale.

How the model reaches 51% for Barnet to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Barnet to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Barnet's ratings add 6 points and Port Vale's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 51%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage41%+5
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%+1
  4. Barnet's ratings48%+6
  5. Port Vale's ratings51%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

BarnetPort Vale
13Matches13
7W 5D 1LRecord5W 3D 5L
28 2.2 per gameGoals scored14 1.1 per game
18 1.4 per gameGoals conceded16 1.2 per game
0 of 13Clean sheets4 of 13
0 of 13Failed to score5 of 13
3 of 3Penalties scored3 of 3
27 2.1 per gameYellow cards26 2.0 per game
2Red cards0
4-2-3-1 8×Usual shape3-5-2 7×

Barnet at home · Port Vale away

7Played6
4W 2D 1LRecord0W 1D 5L
15–10Goals for – against2–11
0 of 7Clean sheets0 of 6

League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League Two matches this season: Barnet 13, Port Vale 13.

Barnet scored 3344212
Port Vale conceded 102444

Barnet score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Port Vale have let in 4 there.

Port Vale scored 432031
Barnet conceded 226133

Port Vale score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Barnet have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Barnet

Port Vale

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.