Chesterfield
vs
Shrewsbury
League Two prediction
Our model says: Chesterfield 2–1 Shrewsbury
The model makes it 53% Chesterfield, 25% draw, 22% Shrewsbury — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Chesterfield 1.93, Shrewsbury 1.06.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Chesterfield: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Chesterfield's rating is built from 63 League Two matches and Shrewsbury's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.
Key facts
- Chesterfield are 7th on 22 points from 15 games; Shrewsbury are 10th on 21 points from 15 games — League Two.
- Chesterfield have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Bristol Rovers.
- Shrewsbury have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Oldham.
- Last 6 meetings: Chesterfield 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Chesterfield 2–3 Shrewsbury.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury
Has the model earned this number?
Chesterfield at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury
Chesterfield
League Two
- W2-0away to Bristol Rovers14 November 2026
- L1-4away to Newport County30 October 2026
- W5-1Crewe24 October 2026
- D1-1Colchester20 October 2026
- L0-1away to Port Vale17 October 2026
Shrewsbury
League Two
- W2-1Oldham14 November 2026
- L1-2Gillingham31 October 2026
- D3-3away to Rotherham24 October 2026
- W3-2away to Crawley Town20 October 2026
- W1-0Bristol Rovers17 October 2026
What these results say
- Chesterfield scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chesterfield conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shrewsbury scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Shrewsbury conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Shrewsbury had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Chesterfield | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 21 | +5 | 22 |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Chesterfield
Chance to finish in the top three · 22% today
Shrewsbury
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 7% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury
- 7 March 2026Chesterfield 2–3 ShrewsburyLeague Two
- 20 December 2025Shrewsbury 0–1 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 11 March 2017Chesterfield 1–1 ShrewsburyLeague One
- 20 August 2016Shrewsbury 2–1 ChesterfieldLeague One
- 2 January 2016Chesterfield 7–1 ShrewsburyLeague One
- 18 August 2015Shrewsbury 1–2 ChesterfieldLeague One
Leading scorers: Chesterfield and Shrewsbury
Chesterfield
GoalsAssists
- L. Marsh61
- L. Bonis52
Shrewsbury
GoalsAssists
- J. Davison51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chesterfield a 4.7% chance of the title and Shrewsbury 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chesterfield the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Chesterfield against 1.06 for Shrewsbury. Chesterfield's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/2.31 for Shrewsbury.
How the model reaches 53% for Chesterfield to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Chesterfield to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Chesterfield's ratings add 6 points and Shrewsbury's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Chesterfield's ratings47%+6
- Shrewsbury's ratings53%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Chesterfield at home · Shrewsbury away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Chesterfield 15, Shrewsbury 15.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Chesterfield
- at Swindon Town28 Nov · League Twowin 39%
- vs Exeter City1 Dec · League Twowin 37%
- vs Grimsby12 Dec · League Twowin 38%
- at Accrington Stanley19 Dec · League Twowin 36%
- vs Northampton26 Dec · League Twowin 43%
Shrewsbury
- vs Cheltenham28 Nov · League Twowin 41%
- at York1 Dec · League Twowin 23%
- vs Port Vale12 Dec · League Twowin 35%
- at Walsall19 Dec · League Twowin 22%
- vs Swindon Town26 Dec · League Twowin 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.