Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

Gillingham vs Crewe League Two prediction

Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham

Our model says: Gillingham 2–1 Crewe

The model makes it 37% Gillingham, 27% draw, 36% Crewe — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Gillingham 1.43, Crewe 1.39.

Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

A tight game: Gillingham and Crewe are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Gillingham's rating is built from 61 League Two matches and Crewe's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.

Key facts

  • Gillingham are 12th on 20 points from 15 games; Crewe are 5th on 23 points from 15 games — League Two.
  • Gillingham have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Colchester.
  • Crewe are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Newport County.
  • Last 6 meetings: Crewe 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Crewe 1–0 Gillingham.

More League Two predictions

All League Two predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Gillingham vs Crewe

58%
Both teams to score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Gillingham win Draw Crewe win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–18%
  3. 1–28%
  4. 1–08%
  5. 0–18%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 2–06%

Scores read Gillingham first; the other scorelines share the remaining 44%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Gillingham at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Gillingham vs Crewe

Gillingham

League Two

  • L0-2away to Colchester14 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Shrewsbury31 October 2026
  • L1-4Grimsby24 October 2026
  • D1-1Port Vale20 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Accrington Stanley17 October 2026

Crewe

League Two

  • D2-2Newport County14 November 2026
  • D1-1Barnet31 October 2026
  • L1-5away to Chesterfield24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Exeter City20 October 2026
  • W3-2Rochdale17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Gillingham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Gillingham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Gillingham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Crewe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Crewe failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Crewe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Gillingham155552021-120
5Crewe155821919023

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Gillingham

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 8% today

Win 6%
Draw 8%
Defeat 9%

Crewe

Chance to finish in the top three · 5% today

Win 7%
Draw 5%
Defeat 3%

From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Gillingham vs Crewe

  • 14 February 2026Crewe 1–0 GillinghamLeague Two
  • 23 August 2025Gillingham 1–0 CreweLeague Two
  • 15 February 2025Gillingham 0–0 CreweLeague Two
  • 5 October 2024Crewe 2–0 GillinghamLeague Two
  • 29 March 2024Gillingham 0–0 CreweLeague Two
  • 3 October 2023Crewe 2–0 GillinghamLeague Two

Leading scorers: Gillingham and Crewe

Gillingham

GoalsAssists

  • Ronan Hale61

Crewe

GoalsAssists

  • J. Gibson52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Crewe (5th, with Gillingham 12th), while our numbers lean to Gillingham. Gillingham rate 0.46 in attack and 2.39 in defence, Crewe 0.48 and 2.11 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gillingham a 0.1% chance of the title and Crewe 0.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Gillingham v Crewe has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 37% / 27% / 36%: the biggest move is Crewe's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Gillingham win37%▼ −1
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Crewe win36%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Gillingham Crewe
0.46 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.48
2.39 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.11
1.43 Model expected goals (this match) 1.39

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Gillingham the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Gillingham against 1.39 for Crewe. Gillingham's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.11 for Crewe.

Gillingham carry a model rating of 6.03 against 6.11 for Crewe. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 37% for Gillingham to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Gillingham to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Gillingham's ratings take away 2 points and Crewe's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 37%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage41%+5
  3. Gillingham's ratings39%−2
  4. Crewe's ratings37%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

GillinghamCrewe
15Matches15
5W 5D 5LRecord5W 8D 2L
20 1.3 per gameGoals scored19 1.3 per game
21 1.4 per gameGoals conceded19 1.3 per game
4 of 15Clean sheets4 of 15
5 of 15Failed to score2 of 15
3 of 3Penalties scored1 of 1
38 2.5 per gameYellow cards27 1.8 per game
1Red cards1
3-4-2-1 8×Usual shape4-2-3-1 12×

Gillingham at home · Crewe away

7Played7
2W 3D 2LRecord2W 3D 2L
8–9Goals for – against5–9
3 of 7Clean sheets3 of 7

League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League Two matches this season: Gillingham 15, Crewe 15.

Gillingham scored 204535
Crewe conceded 246203
Crewe scored 323523
Gillingham conceded 332274

Crewe score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Gillingham have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Gillingham

Crewe

  • vs Grimsby28 Nov · League Twowin 32%
  • at Accrington Stanley1 Dec · League Twowin 30%
  • at Cheltenham12 Dec · League Twowin 35%
  • vs Salford City17 Dec · League Twowin 32%
  • at Fleetwood Town26 Dec · League Twowin 30%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.