Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers League Two prediction

Whaddon Road, Cheltenham

Our model says: Cheltenham 2–1 Bristol Rovers

The model makes it 43% Cheltenham, 26% draw, 31% Bristol Rovers — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Cheltenham 1.75, Bristol Rovers 1.42.

Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Cheltenham's rating is built from 61 League Two matches and Bristol Rovers's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.

Key facts

  • Cheltenham are 9th on 21 points from 15 games; Bristol Rovers are 18th on 16 points from 15 games — League Two.
  • Cheltenham have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Exeter City.
  • Bristol Rovers have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Chesterfield.
  • Last 6 meetings: Bristol Rovers 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Bristol Rovers 4–0 Cheltenham.

More League Two predictions

All League Two predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers

63%
Both teams to score
61%
Over 2.5 goals
39%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Cheltenham win Draw Bristol Rovers win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–27%
  4. 1–07%
  5. 2–26%
  6. 2–06%
  7. 0–15%

Scores read Cheltenham first; the other scorelines share the remaining 48%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Cheltenham at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers

Cheltenham

League Two

  • L0-1away to Exeter City14 November 2026
  • L1-3away to Tranmere31 October 2026
  • W1-0Newport County24 October 2026
  • W4-2Fleetwood Town20 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Oldham17 October 2026

Bristol Rovers

League Two

  • L0-2Chesterfield14 November 2026
  • L1-3away to Fleetwood Town31 October 2026
  • D0-0Swindon Town24 October 2026
  • L1-2Salford City20 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Shrewsbury17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Cheltenham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cheltenham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bristol Rovers did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Bristol Rovers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Cheltenham156362326-321
18Bristol Rovers155191725-816

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Bristol Rovers

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 12% today

Win 8%
Draw 11%
Defeat 14%

From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers

  • 25 April 2026Bristol Rovers 4–0 CheltenhamLeague Two
  • 22 November 2025Cheltenham 1–0 Bristol RoversLeague Two
  • 7 October 2025Cheltenham 0–1 Bristol RoversEFL Trophy
  • 13 April 2024Cheltenham 1–3 Bristol RoversLeague One
  • 9 December 2023Bristol Rovers 1–1 CheltenhamLeague One
  • 5 September 2023Bristol Rovers 4–1 CheltenhamEFL Trophy

Leading scorers: Cheltenham and Bristol Rovers

Cheltenham

GoalsAssists

  • C. McCann91

Bristol Rovers

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cheltenham a 0.3% chance of the title and Bristol Rovers 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Cheltenham v Bristol Rovers has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 42% / 25% / 33% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 43% / 26% / 31%: the biggest move is Bristol Rovers's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Cheltenham win43%▲ +1
  2. Draw26%▲ +1
  3. Bristol Rovers win31%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Cheltenham Bristol Rovers
0.52 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.45
2.59 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.29
1.75 Model expected goals (this match) 1.42

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Cheltenham the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Cheltenham against 1.42 for Bristol Rovers. Cheltenham's attack/defence rating is 0.52/2.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/2.29 for Bristol Rovers.

Cheltenham carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.04 for Bristol Rovers. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 43% for Cheltenham to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cheltenham to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Cheltenham's ratings add 1 point and Bristol Rovers's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 43%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage41%+5
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%+1
  4. Cheltenham's ratings43%+1
  5. Bristol Rovers's ratings43%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

CheltenhamBristol Rovers
15Matches15
6W 3D 6LRecord5W 1D 9L
23 1.5 per gameGoals scored17 1.1 per game
26 1.7 per gameGoals conceded25 1.7 per game
1 of 15Clean sheets5 of 15
3 of 15Failed to score5 of 15
2 of 3Penalties scored1 of 2
38 2.5 per gameYellow cards33 2.2 per game
2Red cards2
4-1-4-1 7×Usual shape4-2-3-1 8×

Cheltenham at home · Bristol Rovers away

7Played7
5W 1D 1LRecord1W 0D 6L
14–10Goals for – against6–15
1 of 7Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League Two matches this season: Cheltenham 15, Bristol Rovers 15.

Cheltenham scored 345334
Bristol Rovers conceded 342439

Cheltenham score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Bristol Rovers have let in 2 there.

Bristol Rovers scored 132323
Cheltenham conceded 352647

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Cheltenham

Bristol Rovers

  • vs Tranmere28 Nov · League Twowin 41%
  • at Oldham1 Dec · League Twowin 27%
  • vs Accrington Stanley12 Dec · League Twowin 36%
  • at Rochdale19 Dec · League Twowin 37%
  • vs Walsall26 Dec · League Twowin 32%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.